Poor Flop Bet? Leads to tough river spot.
Posted by BuddhaKillah
Posted by
BuddhaKillah
posted in
Low Stakes
Poor Flop Bet? Leads to tough river spot.
MP: $21.00 (Hero)
CO: $5.00
BN: $9.42
SB: $3.40
BB: $6.89
So spot starts out with villain opening UTG and me 3 betting him rather large - I literally have no reason to 3 bet this large but was rather just being lazy and hitting the pot button. When he opens and calls a 3-bet I assume he has like ATs+, AQo+, KJs+, 22+, maybe some like T9s type hands, QJs or roughly thereabouts.
On the flop, I think the board is actually quite bad for my range which is predominantly overcards and some higher pairs which can be put in a tricky spot on turns and rivers. I elect to bet out around 55% of the pot and I really do not know what will call me that I really beat here - maybe AK and AQ will call but very unlikely especially OOP, the hands that call me will usually have massive equity against me or be completely crushing me. Of course, I do have a 7 or Q for a straight which I assume will be good a lot, I also block some of his QJ combos which make the nut straight less likely. Hands that call me which beat me on the flop are sets, overpairs, and rarely flushes, however, I think a set would rather raise as there are lots of bad turns and rivers. Overall, I really should be checking the flop here as I have better hands to bet.
On the turn, I realise my hand is not strong enough to bet in conjunction with other hands that I could possibly have. I elect to check and most likely check-call most blank rivers for a reasonable price. I actually think I should be betting very few hands here as I very rarely have 88, 99 or TT as the lowest pocket pair I am 3 betting UTG with is JJ.
On the river when he bets all-in - I need to call with 55% of my range to make sure he is cannot bluff me with any two cards - however, this card is very poor for myself and great for his range. He could not have AK and just be going for very thin value or even have QJ or any set. Although I should theoretically call 55% of the time I think I will need to call substantially lower than that as this board is very bad for most of my range. In retrospect I do not actually mind JJ as a call as it blocks the QJ which would have the nut straight, however on boards like this I don't think villain bluffs anywhere near enough so I should probably just fold everything and I could call with hands such as KK, AA, and QJ combos, with a possible few JJ's thrown in.
Overall I do not like my flop bet but I do not mind the river call. What do you think, I really wanna hear some feedback and would be thankful for any insight, I really wanna tear this spot apart.
Thanks in advance - and also I am kind of new to the game so some of my concepts may be a bit whack.
Buddha.
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I don't have a ton to add here...
I think your breakdown of the hand is better than you give yourself credit for.
I do agree that I would tend to check back this flop.
The river is really tough. I think I lean towards a call, but I am honestly very uncertain of that.
Would love to hear from others on the whole hand.
Thanks for the response man! Out of curiosity what hands would you be calling with here?
Hi.
A nice postflop analysis. I agree with most of what you said and I would agree with a check against a competitive opponent which I would do so with my whole range.
BUT, the most important thing you missed is give any information about the opponent. Was he passive? Aggressive? How loose/tight he was? From my experience most regulars have auto top up set up and don't play with stacks lower than 100bb(true about 90% of the time) and open raising to 3.1bb is a very big size for a regular to use. Now, considering this, I would presume opponent is more likely a recreational player and a rec player on NL5 will have his ranges all around.
With this info I would be inclined to bet/fold flop to $0.85 and shove turn. You don't want to give free cards here and you also don't want action killer cards when he has Tx. Without info you have no reason to discount hands like JT-AT, J9-A9s, 76s, 86s...
I could be wrong and you have some information that he's a competent opponent, but always make sure to check what kind of opponent you're dealing with. You don't want to be balancing yourself against a completely unbalanced player, you'll be losing money that way.
As played, I would fold the river.
Cheers.
Cheers for the response my man! Out of curiosity what hands would you be calling with here that you get to the river with?
I'm not sure what range we get to the river with using this line, but I would guess call AK+ on the river.
Also, when determining river call it helps to know what kind of opponent he is.
"I elect to bet out around 55% of the pot and I really do not know what will call me that I really beat here - maybe AK and AQ will call but very unlikely especially OOP, the hands that call me will usually have massive equity against me or be completely crushing me."
I think your bet is ok - certainly nothing wrong with it in my opinion. Other hands that are calling are KJs which has an oesd 77s, AJo, AT, J9s, J8, JT, 76s etc. Plus some weird hands that float oop. Sets will mostly raise I think cause. Overpairs will mostly 4bet pre so we discount them a lot. Don't think there's much crushing you if anything. You're equity is stable and decent against most of these hands. River fold looks prudent as river improved his range and we didn't improve but this can go either way depending on the player type.
Depends how you structure your ranges here but I'd usually just flat this pre in these positions against a reg. Given hes a shorter stack hes most likely a rec though so like the 3bet and the sizing. Agree with your analysis that should be checking back flop with most of range vs a reg as it heavily favours the preflop caller. However because of the above, I'd agree with burek2000 and bet flop larger and value shove turn yourself, plenty of draws and worse pairs he can be calling off with. River is a fold i think although you could argue that he rarely has sets here and you block the straight. However, don't think you will see worse hands here enough to justify the call.
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