PIO Output on Montone Boards BTNvCO 3BP
Posted by AJL97
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AJL97
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PIO Output on Montone Boards BTNvCO 3BP
I was wondering if anyone can give me understanding why PIO plays so drastically different on two monotone boards. On A96m it checks range and on J73m it bets range, although the equities/nuts in ranges would suggest the other way. I think it is similar BTNvBB SRP, that A high monotone are bet less also. I've looked at how ranges condense on turns/rivers and they both seem to have the same proportion of flushes/sets/top pair calling turns/rivers.
I can't seem to get more than one image posted so I'll sum up what's in them and leave gyazo links too.
BTN 3Bs CO with a mix between linear/polar range.
Nut Range = Two Pair+
J73m
IP: 12.8% nuts (8.5 flushes)
OOP: 14.8% nuts (7 flushes)
IP at 52.5% equity advantage.
A96m
IP: 11.3% nuts (3 flushes)
OOP: 14.5% nuts (6 flushes)
IP at 55% equity advantage.
At first I thought it was the shift in flushes in both players ranges, however I gave IP on A96m a total of 9 flushes (making IP at 57.5% equity advantage and they are only betting 35% of the time). My only guess right now is that on J73m you can value bet AAsx-QQsx over three streets because they block the flushes that would call and also unblock JX, whereas on A96 we cannot value bet AK for three streets because it blocks worse calling hands i.e. AQ, and unblocks the top of their range i.e. flushes. Would be great just to start a discussion and hear some people's thoughts on the above.
edit: Might also be our bluffs have more equity on J73m and have more potential to turn into a nutted hand.
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On A96m it appears that OOP has 2x the number of flushes based on the ranges you used? I presume you are talking about IP checking range?
Sorry missed your comment on that. It looks like it is expanding the betting range as you give more flushes. A96 I think is just a more static board I think. Try comparing rainbow with the same flop. That might give you an indication of how much it is being driven by the ranks of the cards.
i have no idea but would try to comment
Js7s3s
- you have more hands interested on bet, more nut flushes and more proteccion bets like overpairs and maybe some Jx?
-at same time villian has more Strong draws since he has AX offsuited combos with FD
(more than KJo QJo typoe hands)
As9s6s
-u dont need to bet for proteccion your TPs and dont have 3 street at high freq
-check doesnt give much "free equity" to villian like on J73 ( less Flush draws and no overcards on villians range)
I didnt worked a lot on monotone boards because are infrecuent and really hard to take patterns but its an interesting post
i would recommend u to solve more monotone boards at this spot and compare it with agg report, that should help a bit to understand "how Pio Thinks"
equity advantage is important but i think u should check here who has the Nut Advantege, having less equity but more Nut hands its sometimes better than having more pure Equity
Maybe on A96s u have more equity but OOP has the Nut advantage and that should be important
Hey AJL97
Very interesting post, I like your initiative for such a discussion. I think the solver outputs are often taken as fact, which becomes a little futile without reading into reasoning behind why they do what they do.
As for the question, on the Jhigh board pio recognizes that a lot of the pot share of both players, specifically the IP, get's attributed to drawing hand (we have high off-suit combos in both ranges, and much of them are overcards to the J). For this reason it decides that it wants to start putting money in the pot before the board changes and many value hands aren't able to extract as much as they do on the flop(AKQ as well as any flush completing card are all bad for hands like AJ, KJ or QQ). On the contrary, the Ahigh board is pretty much locked up, not many of the strong value bets really need to worry about the board changing because there simply aren't that many draws in the OOP's range. Additionally, with the lower SPR in a 3bet pot it will be able to get all the money in pretty easily using just the 2 streets.
These are of course just my thoughts, I am not bald enough to claim this is for sure what pio actually thinks ;)
Cheers.
Thanks for the lengthy reply. So I've looked into it and this seems to match with the PIO ouputs where the equity changes more drastically on J73m (B flop) than A96m (X flop) (albeit in two different lines, so OOP range is more condensed on J73m since they have a folding range otf, but equity still changes). Left is A96, right is J73.
So looking at the same flop lines as above, then OOP checking I've found something interesting which might give us a better explanation. IP can't value bet AK (non-spade) still (!!) and I think this is because IP folds 60% on A96m (TTsx is a fold and AQ at some frequency!), compared to 45% on J73m, which is crazy to me. I initially thought it folded 60% because on J73m OOP range had already been condensed otf so on A96m they had lots of junk still, but on A96 they fold A5s nearly always so this can't be the case. I just checked IP equity, on A96 on the turn after OOP checks IP has 62% whereas on J73m IP has only 43% equity, which may explain why OOP can overfold so drastically. And maybe the EV of betting flushes + leaving X range destroyed > protecting by XC/XR more flushes. So that kinda explains why we can't vbet AK OTT and maybe that's why we bet very little otf although it seems we should with such a range advantage, along with good equity retention as you said. Good luck making sense of that ramble haha, let me know if you have any thoughts on what I said :)
AJL97 I edited the formatting so that people could have a bit of an easier time answering you. Just in case you were wondering what happened to your post.
Haha cheers!
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