PIO betsizing confusion
Posted by pokerinlondon
Posted by
pokerinlondon
posted in
High Stakes
PIO betsizing confusion
Hi
Referring to mistake#1 in this article
https://upswingpoker.com/nick-petrangelo-tournament-course-mistakes/
This article implies its some sort of a mistake to use a smaller bet sizing on this flop.A♠ J♣ 4♣
It implies (and therefore I find it misleading), that in theory, the EV of using bigger bet on this flop is higher
than smaller bet (at equilibrium).
I am not convinced with this because of the following
* Just because solver prefers one betsize over another when mixing strategies, it doesn't necessarily mean it is a mistake to use
one betsize over another.
* if you don't follow the advice in the article about this flop and use a smaller betsize then you are allowed to bet a lot more frequently as compared to bigger betsize
so the overall EV of your strat will remain the same
** If you are using a particular bet size and your opponent is responding correctly, then it doesn't
really matter what betsize you use because at equilibrium you yield the same EV for each strategy
To back this theory up, I have ran 4 separate sims
Sim1 : allow cbet of 33% only
Sim2 : allow cbet of 66% only
Sim3 : allow cbet of 90% only
Sim4 : allow cbet of 33,66,90
All 4 sims yeild the (pretty much) the same EV for IP (once OOP checks the flop)
For our bigger cbet strat to yeild a higher EV, our opponent has to make a mistake when responding to our cbet
for example, overcall certain hands that he is supposed to fold to bigger bet.
I have no problem using/studying multiple bet sizes but I want to make sure it is for the right reason, for example
if I have a reason to believe villain is going to respond incorrectly to a certain betsize then its makes perfect sense to
use multiple betsizes depending on what assumptions I have about the villain.
However, if I am up against a good opponent who knows how to respond effectively vs each betsize, then it doesn't matter what sizing
I use ! Am I coming to the right conclusion here or I am missing something ?
If my understanding is correct, it brings us to the point
of this discussion, what incentive do we have in studying which sizing PIO prefers for different flops ?
Is it not better to study one betsize for all flops and master it when we are studying equilibrium play ?
Thanks
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Just to add to my following statement
I mean the there is a difference in the EV for using one betsize over another but that difference is so tiny (less than 1% of the pot) and I don't understand how it becomes a mistake to use one sizing over another.
The effort required to study which flop sizing is preferred on each flop by solver is huge and does not bring us any benefit so I am struggling to understand why a lot coaches now a days teach how to use the 'correct' flop cbet sizing.
I didn't read the article but when we are choosing the bet sizing , ranges are more important than board
For example at HU 100bb deep on AJ4r you can practically cbet range using 29%
But if you change ranges , for example input a stroner range for OOP solver will prefer a bigger sizing and a more polar strategy.
I think you are in the right way
You talk about villain responses and i am agree with you, population will make huge mistakes against small cbets
And most important imo, we will make less mistakes playing a simplified strategy
For example using a 75% size in a spot where is 0.5% better but is really complex will make us lose more EV than this with our own mistakes
This is true for the example but there are boards where EV diff is bigger for different bet sizings and the sizing you use matters
You need to start by checking ev of different strategies.
If you face a player who knows how to respond effectively vs each bet size you don't want to use a size with big ev lose
This is exactly what my argument is, the EV will never be big enough for it to matter enough for us to investigate all boards and see which boards prefer bigger sizing.
Can you give example(s) where you think the EV difference might be big enough and I can run a sim to see. Happy to be proven wrong :)
probably you have to look in 3b spots because it will have much bigger pot on the flop than single-raise-pot. Therefore changes in EV between sizes can be significant.
I don't know whats big enough 1% of 5bb pot - 0,05BB difference or 5/100BB
1% of 20BB pot - 0,2BB difference or 20/100BB (much more significant)
Btn vs BB, srp, 832r. Look at the ev with the btn combos of 99. And 1% pot is not a tiny margin, it's about 5bb/100 so not sure why you think it doesn't
matter
Edit: make sure to allow overbetting
the situation in question for this discussion is cbetting SRP IP as the section of the article I referred to was : Mistake #1: C-betting small (33% pot) on Ace-high boards vs. the big blind
Hey pokerinlondon: what SPR did you utilize for your sims? The key reason to bet big on these flops is to get lots of money in with our more polarized range against Villain's more capped range. At 5 SPR, this is not a big consideration as we can still get it in with bigger sizings on turn and river. At 15 SPR, betting small on the flop no longer gets the money in, so the large flop sizing starts gaining a lot more EV.
Hi BarracudaNL, I am simulating SRP 100bb so my SPR is 15 for example
Starting pot : 65
Effective Stacks : 975
What you are saying is inline with what a lot of people are saying, larger sizing on this flop is better and gains a lot more EV but I am not able to see that in PIO. It shows pretty much the same EV (very tiny negligible difference) for both strategies with smaller and larger sizing so I don't get where this 'big' EV difference is comes from.
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