Painful river card with AA squeeze pot
Posted by MatoStar
Posted by MatoStar posted in Low Stakes
Painful river card with AA squeeze pot
Hellooo
Quick mental inside:
This hand got me into a really nasty spot. Firstly I was really sucked and you know the feeling of spots. I did wonder about it after the session and even when I was about to fall a sleep... but today I am looking at this hand from a bit different perspective. The main difference is that now I am not emotionally involved, so I can look at this hand with a clear mind. That said I regard it as really cool- to have the opportunity to play the tough spots like this, because this is the core of it from where I can be improving my game. More spots like this = more opportunity to built mental toughness, but also more rooms for an improvement. So now I am grateful for getting a chance to play this specific hand.
Okay lets move into the hand. Some can argue for bigger sizing pre - I used a smaller one, just because I have AA (I know its fu**ing exploitable and stuff, but I do it only sometimes, not really sure whether or not it is pointless).
FLOP - I mean both bet/check are fine, but I actually think we can play a checking range being OOP vs 2 players.
TURN - Initially I thought we have to bet.. now I think that x/shove could be an option as well (probably even x/call might be fine). But I decided to bet for value and protection from hands like pair+draw.
RIVER- and now we are here..51.8bb left I think AQ and KQ we can extract since the villain called a decent bet with one player behind. So then we dominate Jx hands and worse (rarely KK). In a big spot like this I do not think that he is disciplined enough to fold his Jx hands.. however the worst ones such as TT,99,98s,T8s,97s could find a fold. Which means that he probably has more value combos QJs,T9s,88,77(22,QQ) than hands which we dominate and would call a river shove. So we do not have a value bet.
Okay now look at the x/call option - since he does not have almost any Qx hand, we barely can find something worse than AA which he would value bet with (rarely KK,if so). Then we should look at his bluffing frequency.. only hand which I see which is not paired is 65s - but it is a decent assumption that he got to the river with all combos of 65s.. It follows that we can not even call this river (unless he is spewy, but it is too assumptive to expect that he is).
To conclude, based on my todays assumptions I would probably just x/fold this river.. in reality, I made a 1/6 pot block bet on the river - I thought it is close, but with this sizing I could get some crying calls from almost everything which is paired and even from some better hands such as QJs and lose less. I assumed that he would raise almost always only better hands and almost no bluffs since most players are not capable of folding to a raise given the odds.
his possible range on the river without QQ, but with all Jx which he might bet even on the flop, however with T9s,JJ or 88 which could bet the flop as well. If he would call TT to a river bet. It would be 21vs20 - really close value bet.
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