Overpair vs donkshove on monotone flop
Posted by gyorgyligeti
Posted by
gyorgyligeti
posted in
Low Stakes
Overpair vs donkshove on monotone flop
Blinds: $0.05/$0.10 (6 Players)
CO: $9.85
BN: $20.69
SB: $4.88
BB: $15.91
UTG: $10.53 (Hero)
MP: $12.62
BN: $20.69
SB: $4.88
BB: $15.91
UTG: $10.53 (Hero)
MP: $12.62
Preflop
($0.15)
Hero is UTG with
A
A
, , , ,
Probably made a mistake with the 4bet size (too small)
Flop
($4.45)
9
Q
6
Villain seems a not-so-skilled reg, plays 24/15, 3bet 7%, flop agg% 40 (500 hands).
Since he is not a fish, I think he's never shoving the nuts here, so I can remove from his range AsKs, AsJs, AsTs; with KsJs and KsTs he never 3bets on utg, so his range could be something like AsAh, 3 combos of QQ, 3 combos of 99, 3 combos of AsKx, 3 combos of AsQx and probably all the 6 combos of KK; vs this range we play a coinflip, but I'm not sure if it could really be +EV to call in such a spot. Of course with all the AA combos with the As is a snapcall, but without it?
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I think the 4bet size is fine in these positions as long as you have a balanced range here and aren't 4betting AA to 22bb and bluffs to 25bb or something like that.
I wouldn't say never shoving the nuts, there is always the misclick. Anyways, you need to be good here about 40% of the time so vs the range you gave him it will end up being a call. I tend to think KK gets it in more often than not pre-flop though. If he doesn't have the KK combos you need to fold this flop. But, that is only with the range you gave minus the KK. If you can find other flush draw combos, KQ, QJ, TT, etc and potentially discount some of the sets then we are back at a call.
In the end, although it isn't the best thought process I just say I have AA in a 4bet pot and this is a weird line by the opponent so I click call and make a note.
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