overpair facing turn bet LIVE
Posted by Ryan
Posted by Ryan posted in Mid Stakes
overpair facing turn bet LIVE
UTG indian guy limps
Hero raise AsAh $18 UTG+1
Bttn calls w 100bb(I notice him kinda eyeing my stack pre and post in this hand for what its worth( I cover table). No info on villain. He is mid to late 20's
Limper calls
Flop KQ4ddc Pot = $51
limper checks
Hero bets $35
Bttn calls
limper folds
Turn Jc
Pot = $121
Hero Checks
Bttn bets $75
Hero?
My thoughts on hand:
Basically, I think there is a ton of value in villains range. Absent hands like T9o, villain has a shit ton of value combos like KQ(discounted %), KJo, QJo, ATo, T9s, 44(discounted %).
KQ = 3
KJ = 9
QJ = 9
ATo = 8
T9s = 4
44 = 1
T9o = 4
Total of 38 value combos. And when you consider that villain can certainly be playing hands like T9o, the turn starts to look pretty shitty to call here. AK may also be 3b pre here and not bet every time on the turn for this sizing. There are FD combos that bluff here, but dont think every Axdd combo will bluff on turn, and even if they do, they are playing a good amount of equity.
75+75+121 = 271
271/75 = 3.61
1/3.61 = 27%
27%*38 = 10.26
so basically villain needs 10 worse hands betting here to break even. There are around 8 NFD present. We can assume villain may raise a % of these hands on the flop, 1 or 2 combos. This leaves lets say 7 on the turn. Lets say he bets 5 of these combos. We still need to come up to 5 more combos. T8dd, 87dd, 76dd, 65dd, 54dd, 97dd. Again, say he bets half. of these. All of these have equity. It seems as if we can just defend two pair combos here. However it does seem close. Thoughts?
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