I except an ABC NL10 player to raise 99/66/55 OTF, can't really have 33. Looks like 78, TT - AA, maybe some draws. I would lean toward a call even if I don't except an ABC player ot be bluffing a lot here. If he raises 66/55/99 OTF we have to call imo.

3 changes nothing he might overvalue an overpair or wants to do something refreshing and semibluff with a flushdraw.

He has 55, 66, 99, JJ and QQ...maybe not all JJ combos. He does not necessarily raise a set OTF because he shouldn't be scared of you having a flush draw, since your range will have only AcKc and maybe Tc9c for balancing purposes. So its probably a fold against an ABC player. If he does that with clubs (I dont know how many SCs combos he defends with pre-flop), I may be more inclined to call but an ABC player usually have a set here.

taaazz: I would actually defend 55/66 because I think hero's range is pretty strong MP vs UTG, so we have better implied odds.

Trying to justify bet/calling in these spots, in these stakes, by removing valuehands from his range (he would/should fold x preflop, he would/should raise y on the flop etc) and leaving only hands that would maximally benefit from our folds/exploit our overfolding is a dangerous and expensive mistake.

Yes, it would be massively profitable for him to jam worse, since competent regs are going to be bet/folding pretty much everything. But this is abc nit at nl10 and he is raising turn into an obv overpair heavy, strong range. He doesnt expect us to start folding KK+ in 3bpots.