Overbets are NO fun to play against.
Posted by BigBucksNoWhammies
Posted by BigBucksNoWhammies posted in Low Stakes
Overbets are NO fun to play against.
In the hand above :
We open KK in MP to $.25. Folds around to BB who calls. Standard pre flop.
FLOP :
Flop J T 6 r. BB checks. We b50%. On these textured board where there are a ton of hands villain will have that are going to continue I lean towards betting w a smaller part of my range & sizing up to half pot. Villain x/r to $.81. I think I am okay w either re-raising or flatting here. I think there is merit to both. I decided to flat the x/r. On this board, villain is going to have more bluffs than hands for value that are x/r. When I thought about his value range I narrowed it down to JT/66 & maybe some Jx that villain is getting spewy w. I narrowed his bluff range down to hands like Q9s,Q8s, 98s, 87s (maybe), at a low frequency he can have KQ as well - although we block that w our KK so not as often. Anyway, I arrived in my thought process at villain having more bluffs than value so wanted to flat & allow him to continue barreling on turns that brick. This also pot controls for if villain should get there. We are also IP so that played a factor in deciding to flat. Does this thought process seem sound or am I totally off base? I think I am okay w my line here but open to different opinions.
TURN :
3h. For all intents & purposes this is a brick. Villain can have some turned back door flush draws but all of the upfront draws on the flop have bricked out. BB b75% on turn. For the same reasons I mentioned above on the flop. I decided to flat the turn bet. If villain is bluffing I am happy to allow him to continue barreling & call off river bricks.
RIVER :
4h. This is where I think I butchered the hand. In general, the 4h river is a brick. Yes, his backdoor flush draws get there but that is not a ton of hands & we also block some of those hands holding the Kh ourselves. Anyway, BB shoves 1.7x pot & I am totally befuddled. Again, I have mentioned before in some of these HH's - over bets are miserable to play against. I very much struggle playing against them. In general, at 10nl most of the overbets I have seen tend to be very value heavy. If I were to assign a ratio of value:bluffs when it comes to overbets at 10nl, it would be very skewed towards value - maybe 5:1. This logic led to me folding the river which I dont think was the right play. In theory, most of the bluffs villain had on flop, turn have bricked out on this river. & if my theory was to just flat the x/r on the flop as well as flatting the turn barrel, when we get this river isnt it imperative that we call off? Otherwise, our flats on the flop/turn are irrelevant in their purpose. Beyond that, as played what better hands do we have here? Just the sets? If we are folding KK what are we calling w? Idk. I think I saw the overbet & got gun shy about calling off because of the aforementioned stigma I have attached to overbets & how often they are nutted. This spot, this hand, was absolutely miserable. Even now, while I think I should be sigh calling the river, I am still not completely sure if that is the right play or not. Any input/advice on this hand & navigating these sort of spots would be greatly appreciated as I think this is a hole in my game : playing vs overbets.
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