Over pair facing a shove OTT (3b pot)
Posted by colombian20
Posted by
colombian20
posted in
Low Stakes
Over pair facing a shove OTT (3b pot)
Blinds: $0.05/$0.10 (6 Players)
BN: $20.40
SB: $10.00 (Hero)
BB: $10.00
UTG: $11.05
MP: $19.41
CO: $12.84
SB: $10.00 (Hero)
BB: $10.00
UTG: $11.05
MP: $19.41
CO: $12.84
Preflop
($0.15)
Hero is SB with
A
A
, , , ,
Flop
($2.10)
5
2
9
,
Turn
($4.50)
5
2
9
8
, ,
Hi guys, as always dont have stats from V, he plays 4 tables zoom and fullstack so i assume he is a reg, what to do on this turn?
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I think this is a clear call, but you will loose more than 50% of the time here. You only have to call 5,22$ here to be all-inn and not 9,5$ as the HH shows, and need to win around 25% to be +EV.
Because the board is very wet I think you might want to check/call the turn and evaluate on turn. When we bet the turn and get raised it puts us in a gross spot. I don't think villain jams with just a naked flush draw. Something like KhQh is more likely to call than to jam. He could be semi-bluffing with some combo draws but you block A7/A6 of hearts. The problem I think is that you don't really beat any of his value range. I think his range looks mostly like 2 pair, turned straights, sets, pair plus flush draw, straight and flush draws. He raised on the bn so he could easily have suited connectors in his range. With that being said I don't think you beat much of his value range and even his bluffs have good equity against you.
He clearly has a bluff-catcher, but villain reps a narrow value range of 67s, slowplayed sets, 98s (only 2 combos, no 98o I assume) and 88. That is maximum 11 combos + slowplays. If villain slowplays flop he is likely to slowplay some of those combos OTT as well so I think 11 value of around 160 combos (7% of villains range beat AA) is worst case scenario here.
Then you need to find 5-6 combos which villain bluffshoves with / overplays OTT:
Which he likely does!
Yes, it really favors the range distribution that we dont have the AH as villain can have so many nutflushdraws that legitimately can shove turn.
Pretty clear call given all the draws in villains range. He can also have some worse hands for value and protection. We also have decent amount of outs versus 98.
Do you think he bluffs?
Yes --> Call
No --> Fold
Not sure --> Call
I'm calling, but not happy about it or anything.
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