Over-betting the river IP against a call
Posted by 4sthma
Posted by
4sthma
posted in
Low Stakes
Over-betting the river IP against a call
Attacking a capped range in position
PokerStars - $0.16 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
V – villain
Dealt to Hero:
Jd10s
SB raises to 3 BB, Hero calls in the BB calls 2 BB
Flop (6 BB, 2 players):
5h 4h 4s
SB checks, Hero checks
Analysis
This is a paired board with low cards. I decided to check back since I do not have a flush draw and V would definitely call a flop bet with a flush draw. V would also call with over pairs, and some Broadway over cards. Hence, I did not feel that my fold equity is high in this spot. Also, I still have equity to realize on turn and river so I think it is better to check back in this spot.
Turn (6 BB, 2 players):
Ad
SB checks, Hero bets 4.31 BB, SB calls 4.31 BB
Analysis:
V checks again on Ace turn which caps his range. At this moment I have put V on a range that consist of mostly draws or junk: flush draw, straight draw, under pair, or two Broadway type of hands i.e., KQ off, KJ off, Q9 off etc.
I felt that Ace is unlikely to be in V`s range at this moment since he checked flop and turn. I decided to bet 75% pot to make V fold his flushes, straight and Broadway type of hands.
River: 5h 4h 4s Ad Qc
SB checks, Hero bets 20.94 BB, SB calls 20.94 BB
Analysis:
V checks again for the third time. At this moment I believe that V has Qx at best considering his line.
When you think of Vs range as whole at this moment:
Vs range that consist of junk: Busted flushes: KQ – K8, QJ – Q8, J9 – J8, 98, 87, (13 combos), Busted straights: 67 (1 combo), Broadway type of hands: off-suited KJ, K10, Q10 (3). I know that I block hands like K10 but they still may be in Vs range.
Vs range that consist of junk: 16 combos
Vs range that has a SDV: V may still have some Aces but not nutted ones: A9 – A6 (3 combos), KQ, QJ, Q10, and maybe Q9 (4 combos), some under pairs: 99 – 66, and maybe TT which I block anyway (4 combos).
Vs range that has a SDV: 11 combos
Basically, V has roughly combos without any SDV and 10 combos with SDV. Given my bet size (150% pot bet) and MDF. I have to make the V fold 60%, so V has to defend 40%.
11 combos in Vs range is exactly 40% of his range. However, given my bet sizing, V will not be blindly defending according to MDF. Therefore, he should fold anything apart from Ax and KQ. Given that I decided to make 150% over-bet expecting V to fold majority of his range. Unfortunately, V showed up with A9.
If I had 4x. I could either check the flop for range protection and to allow V to improve to the second best pair. However, Check makes little sense with a 4 OTF (range protection sometimes but not very often) - you want 3 streets for value as well as getting value from draws etc. Building the pot is kind of urgent with most 4x. If you bet tiny almost all other hands will continue like A high K high broadways etc. So you will get more value when they hit OTT
Can you tell me if my reasoning is ok, or Im missing something.
Thanks
Hero shows:
(One Pair, Fours)
(Pre 44%, Flop 22%, Turn 0%)
Js10d
SB shows:
9dAh
(Two Pair, Aces and Fours)
(Pre 56%, Flop 78%, Turn 100%)
SB wins 53.94 BB
Loading 1 Comments...
Ok so your combos counting is horrendous. Firstly say J10 is 4 combos not one. This was a mistake you made throughout the analysis. Secondly you don't want to be combo counting when ranges are wide. Let's say villain simplifies to range checking this flop which seems fine, given he opens 40% of hands he has 531 going to the turn. Now given that the board is very dry and he would likely stab this board with his worst air we can conclude that this is a polarized spot and we will resort to villain needing to defend an MDF for arguments sake. On turn you bet 75% so he must defend approx 57% of his range although I imagine slightly less given that he's meant to bet this turn at a reasonable frequency. although I admit I'm still quite confused about this concept. I will say he has to defend 50% for some leeroom. This means villain likely has about 275 combos on the river. ( Ax, pocket pairs, straight and flush draws. ) He has to check them sometimes on turn for protection given that his range is very very wide (It's impossible to say if villain has a betting range on the flop). Even still ranges are clearly too wide to try to card count. Instead you want to think about your hands removal affects. So imo this hand is good for say a 50% sizing rather than the overbet. With the overbet you try to get villain to fold Qx and pocket pairs but you should realise that you block 10s,, JJ, QJ and Q10 which severly unblocks his folding range. Also the value you block (AJ/ A10) as you mentioned are likely betting turn as they can get value from a worse ace over 2 streets. What your hand unblocks are the draws (67/78/68) and hearts. these hands will all fold to a small size and so the overbet is wrong with this hand in my opinion. I am also not sure that you should really have an overbetting range on the river. You should be betting 4x on the flop and you should be 3-betting your strong Ax pre.
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