Out of line fold river fold? Too tight?
Posted by Paid_To_Laid
Posted by
Paid_To_Laid
posted in
Low Stakes
Out of line fold river fold? Too tight?
SB: $50.00 (Hero)
BB: $54.50
UTG: $72.85
MP: $53.56
CO: $78.96
Rake is $1.99
So i guess what I will say is that I sent this hand to my friend and he told me that it is just terrible for me to play the river this way and I need to shove, but I did some analysis and it really seems like a x/f in this specific situation vs the 50zoom player pool. Villian also folding to 15/19 3bets over 500 hands and was playing 23/16/9.
folding AA on river to me, feels almost like...idk kinda standardish. the only floats that I can beat are like QT of club or hearts, and maybe some AQ that he just descides to take another card off with but probably should fold turn.
also river, i loose to 66, 44, KJ, 67ss, 87ss, 98ss, Axss (9 combos), all of the QJss, JTss, J9ss, J8ss, QTss, Q9ss, Q8ss. And honestly the only hands that actually should call this river.....idk what should call the riverin IP's shoes, AJ w/ a spade, AK (if he doesn't get it in pre), KQ of clubs or hearts. I don't see how we can do anything but check fold.
what's the logic in your eyes? and on river for us to be good he actually has to turn like JT into a bluff, or QJ into a bluff or J9 into a bluff. only like 2 QT combinations that aren't flushes and a hundred flushes. I think he is going to struggle very hard to find bluffs on the river
Loading 15 Comments...
At first look without reading your analysis it seems like a very close spot where the precision and reliability of the intel we got on bluffing tendencies from V River will help us define the optimal decision. But i think, given the pot odds, ranges from V given actions, it seems a bit fetch to think he can bluff enough here. I have difficulties to come with enough bluffing combos into V's range to reaching the calling threshold we need. But as i said your the one able to provide the subtleties about V.
Also i think V dont have many sets River, but even then the fact is that he got enough strong combos calling Turn that got there River to outweigh his very few bluffs IF he is competent enough to bluff enough in this spot.
We could analyse you're line and see with which sort of mixture you land River. But i'll assume you're competent enough to 2nd barrel NFD Turn + Combo Draws (obv.) and i'm pretty sure you are able to bluff this River with which seems the best combos to do it so given that i'm not too worried about the fold. Honestly the times you 3 barrels/shove this River will make the decision much more tougher for V and the mistakes greater for him then for you in this spot.
Never fold a hand that beats some value bets. AK and KQ are very easy value bets from villain, which makes folding AA here likely -EV. You've got a small sample on villain and in this sample, he's played like a serious player. This shouldn't be inferred into a player who plays very nittily.
Tyler i'm curious on you're betting range assessments for Villain in this spot?
Let's be generous and put this as the betting range for V, i might be off but it will give an idea. :
Vs. That we are at ~35% River and we need ~30%
Let's say V doesn't Turn AsJx into a bluff, we go down at ~31%
You've got a small sample here on villain and you want to fold AA in a 3-bet pot and to do justify the fold you are making really aggressive assumptions about villains play. There is a major disconnect in your range modeling. Our opponent floats very liberally on the flop with backdoors and then by the river has only two pair or better. One of those two assumptions is wrong or your opponent is terrible.
Note: we probably don't have 70% equity here, but we only need 30% and we have to contort villain's hand range to justify folding. Who floats Q8ss here but not KT? And if he is so loose won't our bluffs show big profits on the turn and river. He starts with any backdoor draw on the flop and then by the river he only has two pair or better? That's really a ridiculously exploitable strategy. If you can't value bet the river here with AA, you've missed designed your range.
So I'm assuming that if we don't intend to fold, we just should be shoving river here. Is that a correct assumption?
I'd say AK gets 4bet close to 100% preflop and I'd also be pretty surprised if a player who appears to be pretty tight and straight-forward shoves KQ for value OTR. I'd also go off the assumption that a player like this less frequently floats the flop and therefore underbluffs the river all of which makes it a pretty thin x/c if you ask me.
I can totaly see this being a super easy call on higher stakes but I'd be surprised if it is vs the average nitty NL50 reg.
Still i would like to have your assumptions of the villain's betting range River.
And my range is surely not perfect as i stated at the top of my post. we could add a lot of hands of course and we will be surely in a good spot to call overall with our range as once AsJx is in V's bluffing range, with the range i provided, we can profitably call as being ~5% over threshold.
But as we shouldn't make any strong assumptions about the "nittily" tendencies of V on that sample the same goes the other way about his looseness.
So what would be a fairly accurate betting range here ? I ask you.
One thing we may not forget and we didn't touch is about Hero's range. Hero as the PFR got a pretty strong range here given actions and is protected because of that, giving less incentives for Villain to bluff us out on River.
You're modeling this player like he's you. My read is... I'm not sure. This spot comes up rarely so has a small impact on win rate which makes strategies vary widely. I can't handread here from several stats and one hand.--hence the criticism.
Thanks
"So I'm assuming that if we don't intend to fold, we just should be shoving river here. Is that a correct assumption?"
That should be correct if you would call a shove.
@Tyler
When you say: "If you can't value bet the river here with AA, you've missed designed your range."
Are you implying that we should be so wide here that AA in relation with our range should be a Value bet ?
I would bet more OTT and shove river, the player looks reggish so hes gonna have some worse calls there for sure
Be the first to add a comment