otb AKo vs utg QQ

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otb AKo vs utg QQ

Blinds: $0.02/$0.05 (6 Players) BN: $6.51 (Hero)
SB: $3.94
BB: $12.48
UTG: $5.74
MP: $2.36
CO: $5.01
Preflop ($0.07) Hero is BN with A K
UTG raises to $0.17, MP calls $0.17, CO folds, Hero raises to $0.60, 2 folds, UTG raises to $2.04, MP folds, Hero calls $1.44
Flop ($4.32) 6 A 8
UTG bets $3.70 and is all in, Hero calls $3.70
Turn ($11.72) 6 A 8 4
River ($11.72) 6 A 8 4 Q
Final Pot BN lost and shows a pair of Aces.
UTG wins and shows three of a kind, Queens.
UTG wins $11.23
Rake is $0.49

are you always calling pre ?

7 Comments

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Disharmonist 9 years, 10 months ago

Jam pre or fold. If you miss the flop, villain can jam anything and you have ahard time calling. In this hand, villain spewed a bit post, but given the SPR is so low, he wouldn x/fold, so the money will go in most of the time here. Just bad luck to get 2outed.

LuckyMer 9 years, 10 months ago

This is a bad call preflop. 4bet is too big to call it here. I cannot imagine a hand with which I'll call this 4bet. Even if I ever want to slowplay AA vs 4bet, then I will certainly jam them when villain 4bet 1/3 of his stack.

And with AK this is a very very bad call preflop. If you think he is spewy and will do it with AQ AJ, then just get it in preflop. But vs UTG it is kind of sucks in my experience. Actually you got lucky he had QQ.

When considering if you want to jam AK vs 4bet, think about fold equity. Because if you don't have fold equity and villain 4bets JJ+ and AK, then AK is 3bet/fold.

LuckyMer 9 years, 10 months ago

Lets make this answer kind of math-based.
Lets say you have AK and you know, that villain never fold after he 4bets. And he always 4bet JJ+, AK.
You have 40.5% equity vs his range and 115bb effective. This way if you 3bet/fold, you lose 12bb with you current sizing. If you 3bet/jam and as we know villain never folds, then you lose 115х2х40.5%-115 = -22bb. With his sizing I think he is rarely folding.

If we consider more "standart" situation, lets say you are on SB and villain on BTN, and you are 100bb effective, you 3-bet to 10bb and get 4-bet to 23bb, then this is still not an easy jam. You need to know his 4-bet range BTN vs blind (HM2 has this stat). If this range is narrow (3%) then this is exactly AA-JJ,AKo,AKs, so he is most likely never folding. And on you jam you'll lose 100х2х40.5%-100 = -19bb. For you jam to be 0ev comparing to 4-betting you need his 4b/fold to jam which is X in the following formulae (1-X) * (100bb * 2 * 40.5%-100bb) + X * 23bb=0 so (1-X) * (-19) + X * 23 = 0 which is -19+X * 19 + X * 23 = 0 or X * 42=19 equals X=19/42 and we get X=45%.

So if villain fold to 4-bet less then 45% then you jam with AK is burning money.

Implications:
* With deeper effective stacks you need even more fold equity
* If villain 4b tighter ranges you need much more fold equity

Synapse 9 years, 10 months ago

Great Stuff LM,
for your ev calc below, in this instance, wouldn't you want to compare ev(3bet-fold) to ev(3bet-jam), so:

-10 = (1-x)(-19) + (x)(23)
x = (9/42) = 21.4%

This is the requisite fold equity to make us indifferent between jamming and folding after 3bet. If we look at composition of his range and account for card removal, we get more than requisite fold equity if villain is folding 9 remaining combos of AK, given full range of (JJ+,AK) equals 27 combos.

LuckyMer 9 years, 10 months ago

WOW, Synapse you are right.
Thank you a lot. I believe now I can more easily jam AK in certain spots.

Concerning card removal it is already counted in EV, so that does not matter. But I think noone ever 4bet-fold AK.

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