So I am studying Donkr articles and I have thoughts about BB defense against BTN min steal.

He talks in his articles about it, but only when the steal is 3,5BB which almost never happens in today games.

His articles are available here and the one I am referring to here.

To sum up his statements:

This should be GTO PF play estimates when every one plays GTO as well.

steals 35%

raises to 3,5bb

4b to 27bb

His effective pot odds are 70% (blinds combined have to defend 30% so he doesn't auto profit with raising any two.

When blind 3b his reaction is:

- 4-bet {QQ+,AK} =34 combos for value
- 4-bet {ATo,A9s-A7s} =24 combos as a bluff
- Flat {JJ-88,AQ-AJ,ATs,KQ-KJ,KTs,QJ,QTs,JTs} =120 combos

Big Blind 

3b to 12bb

5b all in

He needs to defend his portion of 30% so using the quadratic equation his protection share is 16% (actually it is more since SB defends less)

So his ranges are:

3b Value range: TT+ AQ+ (62 combos)

3b bluff range: 66-22, A9s-A6s, K9s-K8s, QTs-Q9s, J9s-J8s, T8s+, 97s+, 87s, 76s, 65s (98 combos)

Flat range: 99-77, Ajs-ATs, AJo, KTs+, KQo, QJs, JTs (70 combos)

Total of 230 combos = ~17%hands

I will not go into more details and I assume most of you already know about this basics.

So my concern here is what happens if BB steals with 2bb raise. His effective pot odds are 57% (2/0,5+1+2) so blinds should defend 43%. With quadratic equation each blind should defend approximately 24% realistically BB much more. 24% = 322 combos

If  his 35% ranges are the same we have to leave the same 3b value/bluff number of combs ie. 160. I think we shouldn't touch his value combos but rearrange his bluff/flat combos.

BB new ranges:

3b Value range: TT+ AQ+ (62 combos)

3b Bluff range: A7s-A2s, Q9s, 75s, 64s, A9o-A8o, KJo-KTo, QJo (96 combos)

Flat range: 99-22, AJs-A8s, K9s+, QTs+, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, AJo-ATo, KQo (164 combos)

Total of 322 combos

What do you think about this ideas, am I thinking in the right direction, how is this working in reality, there is a lot of flatting hands and our range is capped, should we balance it out somehow?