OP OTF turned 2nd pair + OESD OTF, OOP, how do we play?
Posted by AlbinJ
Posted by AlbinJ posted in Low Stakes
OP OTF turned 2nd pair + OESD OTF, OOP, how do we play?
[b]888 Poker - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players[/b]
[i][url=http://www.pokertracker.com]Hand converted by PokerTracker 4[/url][/i]
[b]Hero (BB): 110 BB[/b]
CO: 73.2 BB (VPIP: 60.87, PFR: 2.17, 3Bet Preflop: 4.55, Hands: 47)
BTN: 100.6 BB (VPIP: 30.73, PFR: 21.09, 3Bet Preflop: 11.22, Hands: 562)
SB: 126.8 BB (VPIP: 21.67, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 5.26, Hands: 61)
SB posts SB 0.4 BB, [b]Hero[/b] posts BB 1 BB
[b]Pre Flop:[/b] i[/i] [b]Hero[/b] has J:heart: J:diamond:
CO calls 1 BB, [i]fold[/i], [i]fold[/i], [color=red][b]Hero[/b] raises to 5 BB[/color], CO calls 4 BB
[b]Flop:[/b] i[/i] 6:spade: T:spade: 9:diamond:
[color=red][b]Hero[/b] bets 7.6 BB[/color], CO calls 7.6 BB
[b]Turn:[/b] i[/i] Q:heart:
[color=red][b]Hero[/b] bets 18.4 BB[/color], [color=red]CO raises to 60.6 BB and is all-in[/color], [i]fold[/i]
Q: How do we play turn?
A: I think we want to check/call because our relative hand strenght decreases when the Q hits OTT. Qx beats us (mainly thinking of QJ, QT, Q9, Q8, KQ & FDs with a Qx but who knows what he has). KJ also got there but we still have SDV vs Tx, 9x, 6x and sometimes vs crazy stuff. If he's ahead we still have our OESD which sometimes will make us the winning hand, if we bet/fold we therefore fold out equity.
The downside of checking is that we give him the option to check behind with his FDs or giving him free equity with his 2nd/3rd/4th pairs. I still think check/calling is more favorable for us.
If i give him this range for calling the turn:
UTG 58.06% { TT-99, 66, ATs, KJs-KTs, Q6s+, JTs, T8s+, 87s, AsQs, AsJs, As9s, Ks9s, Js9s, As8s, Ks8s, Js8s, 9s8s, As7s, Ks7s, Js7s, 9s7s, Ks6s, As5s, Ks5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, ATo, KJo-KTo, Q8o+, J8o+, T9o, 87o }
UTG+1 41.94 { JdJh }
Than my conclusion that we should check/call is right. We don't have a value bet but we still have the very good odds to call vs a normal bet size. He's betting vs calling range might look different since he might elect to check back some hands. But for me it seems that we have a call OTT without digging deeper into ranges.
Do you disagree or agree? Can i make my analysis better somehow?
All tips appreciated!
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