OOP 3bp QQ vs barrel off

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OOP 3bp QQ vs barrel off

Blinds: $0.25/$0.50 (6 Players) BN: $205.80
SB: $55.02 (Hero)
BB: $28.17
UTG: $15.00
MP: $64.84
CO: $30.44
Preflop ($0.75) Hero is SB with Q Q
3 folds, BN raises to $1.50, Hero raises to $5.25, BB folds, BN calls $3.75
Flop ($11.00) 5 J 5
Hero bets $6.79, BN raises to $15.20, Hero calls $8.41
Turn ($41.40) 5 J 5 4
Hero checks, BN bets $13.79, Hero calls $13.79
River ($68.98) 5 J 5 4 K
Hero checks, BN bets $23.44, Hero folds
Final Pot BN wins $66.98
Rake is $2.00

villain is 15/13/5, 25% steal from BTN, fold to pre 4bet once. Only stats i have over little 55 hand history

on the flop I make a bit big size bet that makes it look I want to buy this pot with most of my range. And he 2.5x raise, if I ever defend this flop this is on the top of my range? And since I could CB wide on flop, it makes sense for him to bluff raise pushing all my air out.

my range look very strong after called flop and turn, and he still fire the river. I only see I can beat very few combo of bluff on the river. But I have good odds to defend this size river bet, was my fold really bad?

Also we don't have much history to each other, I don't think hes bluffing that wide using all of his stack very often.

really want advice! Thanks!

4 Comments

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BalboBiggins 7 years, 1 month ago

villain is 15/13/5, 25%

guess i fold and assume hes just having a stroke with A5s/55 or JJ/KK/AA.
pretty narrow range to assume but again he has 13 PFR

Lammmss 7 years, 1 month ago

But since I could be CB wide on flop, why would he raise with any 5s and fullhouse?also AA,cause no any turn would be a scary card for him. Because I was likely to barrel the turn.

Live_your_dreams85 7 years, 1 month ago

I prob fold as well OTR. villain would not raise you with his best 5 combos OTF,
SB range is more polarized as the PRF 3bettor. so you are correct to assume that he would not raise with the top of his range ( barring some history with each other for exploitive Lines) but there is no sample here. I do think he may raise you here some frequency with his worse 5x combos (45s/56s) problem is villain kinda is going to have a hard time balancing a raising range here OTF with natural bluff combos, given the flop texture. He prob is to weighed to value and we can just over fold here a lot.

NickHalden 7 years, 1 month ago

Assuming he never value something less than trips, we just beat pure bluffs, even if we got the odds I don't think we are ever winning vs general population

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