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October/November Results

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October/November Results

Since my last post about my results in September, I wanted to provide a little update.

I put a lot of work into my game after reading this 2p2 post on red line winnings. It's not as bad as before, but I think it was enough to bring me from being a losing player to a slightly winning player. I played a lot given my current situation (45 hrs/wk FT job) so I'm happy with that. My mental game has improved by leaps and bounds after reading TMGOP 1&2 and implementing a session report card where I could evaluate my play without being results oriented. But I feel my technical game is still lacking a lot.

October 2013 Graph:

November 2013 Graph:

My win rate isn't spectacular. As you can see my red line is still quite negative. I see a lot of people's graphs where their red line is close to BE. That would do wonders for my winrate but at the moment I'm having trouble seeing how I can win more w/o SD. 

I have a feeling it might be from cold calling too much. I have about a 4-5% gap between my VPIP and PFR. I'm losing money (especially from SB) by set mining with baby pocket pairs, and also flatting Axs in CO/BTN.

SB cold call (Nov '13):

CO cold call (Nov '13):

BTN cold call (Nov '13):

Baby Pocket Pairs just seem difficult for me to play OOP in general. I've actually cut out opening 22-55 UTG completely unless the table is really soft so the sample size is limited. In MP, 22-88 is giving me trouble!

UTG PFR (Nov '13):

MP PFR (Nov '13):

Also my 3-bet stat is a lot lower than most regs at around 5.2%. My W$WSF stat is around 46% and a lot of the regs that I feel are constantly outplaying me are in the 48-50% range.

October 2013 Stats

November 2013 Stats

Any advice you guys can give me to increase my winrate some more?

TIA 

- bdon


21 Comments

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ItsToothPasteISwear 11 years, 3 months ago

honestly, I wouldnt focus on things like red line or WR, they are so variance dependent, and redline is very style dependant. More players have lost more money by worrying about their redline than anything else in poker imo. They just fixate on it because having a "good" redline is considered "sexy". I honestly believe that if you offered a player the choice to have a say a 8bb/100 WR and a redline that dropped like a stone, or a 6bb/100 WR but the worlds greatest redline, a ton of them would choose the latter.

I would focus on specific situations and work on improving in those spots, and let your redline and WR do whatever it is they are gunna do. Work on specifically SB play vs steals, or work out the the profibility of calling underpairs vs barrells against different opponent types, etc etc. Imo thats the best approach to improving in poker. Narrow your focus enough that you can work on specific aspects instead of looking at the big picture as a whole, a picture that is murky and clouded because of variance.


also in terms of mental game, dont forget to celebrate and feel a big sense of accomplishment for the work you have been putting in, thats something to be very proud of so awesome job!!!


Hova 11 years, 3 months ago

difference from oct looks good, keep it up!

p.s Is that hem 2 you are viewing your holecard results like that with? How do you do that? also definitely fold 45s - 89s UTG at 50nl. And I would only open the  AXs than can make straights too, at reggy table only ATs+. Will look closer later on my way out =]


bdon22 11 years, 3 months ago

Yeah it's HEM 2. I'm at work right now so I can't check but just above the hand histories is a rubics cube looking icon... if you click that it will open the hand chart associated with the selected position(s).

SPrince 11 years, 3 months ago

Wow same graphs as mine, only reversed :).

SPrince 11 years, 3 months ago

Yeah something like that, for last month.

I`m usually winning at non showdown, slightly winning or breaking even at showdown.

Last month i did a little too much of hero calling, value betting too thin and experimenting with overbets.



m3taphysics 11 years, 3 months ago

SB Cold Call range, it includes a lot of Axs type hands. Can you provide some situations where you are doing this? I would consider your SB Cold Call range to be quite wide, feels like you are calling OOP too much. Generally we should look to 3betting or folding in this spot because you have the BB to act behind you and its the worst position at the table.

Same goes for the weak offsuit broadways and pocket pairs 22-66.


bdon22 11 years, 3 months ago

Still looking into it at the moment but I have a feeling I am defending Axs and baby PP's too wide and either getting squeezed or having to just give up on a lot of flops from being OOP. Looking at my SB cold call win rate its -124bb/100 (my BB cold call winrate is +20bb/100) small samples. WWSF only 42% and folding to flop c-bets 46%. 

Sean Fri 11 years, 3 months ago

yeah, bdon, this is going to be HUGELY affected in a small sample by the times you've apparently decided to flat AA and KK in the SB and lost. (I think I would only flat these hands in the SB if the BB were HUGELY squeeze happy.) These are the kinds of hands that you can't let go and generally go broke with, as the deep red seems to indicate. Everyone can give up 22-55 post, so even if they lose, they won't lose as much. Even if you only did it and lost a stack with each just once, that's -10,000bb/100 that you have to fight back from. 

I'd look at your 3bet vs stl stat in the sb. A lot of people advocate adding baby suited A's to the sb 3bet range, just because a 3bet goes through often enough on its own if the stealer is sufficiently wide, there's some card removal w/ the A, and you almost always know immediately whether to play or give up on the flop, so there aren't many hard decisions even if you're called. But you want AA and KK in that 3betting range, too, because sometimes you're going to get 4bet, and if you have too many baby aces (that you're folding) and not enough value, and you start folding a lot, people will start 4betting you relentlessly (or should.) 

Some people like to 3bet baby pairs, too, for similar reasons, although there's no card removal. It ends up being almost profitable by itself to 3bet/fold these hands, and they're so tough to play OOP post flop. 

First thing I would do, sitting down at any table, for about a week, is check the stl stat and fold stl to re-raise by position of the guy to my right, and the squeeze stat in the BB of the guy to my left. Then check the stl and fold stl stats of the guy who's going to be your CO when you're SB. That's going to give you a much better idea of what you're going to be doing in the SB that session. 


bdon22 11 years, 3 months ago

I like that idea thank you. I don't have access to my HEM db right now but from a previous extraction it shows that I'm getting crushed when 3-betting light from the blinds/OOP (small sample). -200 bb/100 in the SB over 185 hands (-220 EVbb). -5 bb/100 in the BB (+320 EV/bb lol). For SB, WWSF is only 34% (!) WTSD 21%, WSD 38%. C-bet by street 42/57/25. Could it be how I am playing the hands post-flop that's getting me killed?

3BL hands OOP (SB/BB):

3BL Results OOP (SB/BB):


Sean Fri 11 years, 3 months ago

A lot of that could very well be run-bad, but I'm pretty sure it's how you're playing it. Look at the larger SD hands - it seems like you've lost a stack 4 times and won only 1 back. Do you get all ego-y when you 3bet light? I'd pull those HH's out and take a look at how you played the hands instead of concentrating on the stats. One of the things about 3betting light is that you HAVE to know when to give up. And don't worry at all that giving up is showing weakness or telling him that you were bluffing. He HAS to think you're bluffing some in order to get paid off with your stronger holdings. 

And that light 3bet heat map looks REALLY wide, which could also have something to do with it. If you're that wide with your light 3bets, AND you're also cold-calling AA and KK sometimes, then you're never going to have enough value in your range to get anyone to fold anything in 3bet pots OOP. That's also why your WWSF is so low, I'd imagine.

You might need to get a better handle on your pre-flop SB strategy. It's ok to fold. In fact it's better than what you're doing now. You'd probably be better off just folding the Q7o and 72s of the world and sitting down and figuring out what you're defending v. most and v. specific types.

The way it was explained to me (and oh, my god! did I struggle with my SB, and still do, so I don't have all the answers) was this: 

3bet monsters for value and bluff hands that are too weak to defend but too strong to fold, that have some card removal, or that hit some flops hard but most flops weakly. (22-66, (or -77, or -88) A2s-A5s, A9s-Ats.) Cold call strong-ish hands that can continue on a number of boards or could play ok multi-way (suited broadways, suited connectors, mid PP's, maybe sooome suited one gappers, maybe some higher unsuited connectors, bigger unsuited broadways that aren't monsters.) And fold everything else. Everything. Relentlessly. OK, maybe not everything. Once every 8000 hands you want to show up with something screwy, but not once every 800. The actual hands in the ranges can be moved around a bit, but the general categories hold. 

Then be honest with yourself about what your bluffs are so you know when to fold them to 4bets. And plan what flop types you're continuing on with hands that see a flop, and if you don't hit it, don't continue. Folding hands early rather than folding hands late will have an impact on the slope of your redline. It won't keep it from going down, but it will keep it from going down quicker. A really good way to pump your win rate is to not give away free money out of position. Yes, you'll sometimes cbet the heavy flop or the wet flop with air, but that's because the board is better for a 3betting range than it is for his steal/calling range and you think you'll get a fold the majority of the time. But in general, have a plan, and don't get cute. 

Or so I'm told. I'm repeating received wisdom here, as much to assure myself as anything else. 

Sean Fri 11 years, 3 months ago

Addendum: I see you got horribly unlucky on one all-in which is skewing your results dramatically. But don't worry about the results yet. Go back and look at how you played the hands. 

StopDreaming 11 years, 3 months ago

Your session report through google form is awesome, you are working on your poker, your mental game and you are also work on a full time job. GG man, rly impressive.

chuBuBBawuB 11 years, 3 months ago

Hi, what stakes are you playing at? There are some exploitative adjustments that I would recommend you to take if this is maybe 25nl or lower.

Without knowing that my first recommendation would be to consider tightening up your UTG range. From your stats it does not look terribly different to MP. Of course you could be doing fine anyway with all your opens but it would definitely be worth combining all your samples (which hopefully is a large enough sample size to see some trends?) and then filtering each of the hands that are the bottom of your opening range. Check whether you are actually making a profit with these opens and if not start folding them. Even if you are only barely +ev with some of them it is probably best to let them go and leave yourself more time to concentrate more on spots that are clearly profitable or on increasing your number of tables.

bdon22 11 years, 3 months ago

Mostly 50NL. Moved up from 25NL beginning of October. Took a shot at 100NL early November but burned through my "shot roll" in an hour lol. Thanks for the advice!

Daz 11 years, 3 months ago

my graphs look exactly the same, i will try do some comparisons so that we both can solve this tanking red line

Daz 11 years, 3 months ago

i would really like to create my own session report can you guide me through it?

bdon22 11 years, 3 months ago

Sure np. You should start a Google Drive account. If you already have a Gmail account then you can access it in the apps section.

https://drive.google.com

In Drive, go to Create --> Form

Pick a template and fill out the questions to suit your needs. Feel free to copy my form as you wish. Play around with the form. You will notice it dumps all the results to a spreadsheet which you can modify directly from Drive or download to edit in Excel.

Any other questions feel free to PM me.

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