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nuts vs fish... Highest EV line?

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

nuts vs fish... Highest EV line?

SB: $202.90
BB: $181.72
UTG: $536.50
HJ: $205.62
CO: $326.11 (Hero)
BN: $509.71
His very first hand, so his range is quite wide i would say.
Preflop ($3.00) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt A A
UTG folds, HJ raises to $6, Hero raises to $18, BN folds, SB folds, BB calls $16, HJ folds
Flop ($43.00) 3 2 7 (2 Players)
BB bets $16, Hero calls $16
His range is quite wide pre so he probably had a decent amount of air in his donking range.
Turn ($75.00) 8 (2 Players)
BB bets $32, Hero calls $32
Thoughts? - Do you raise flop or turn.

6 Comments

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james 12 years, 3 months ago
I would probably make a small raise on the flop here. Though calling is fine, he hasn't made a big bet on the flop so he's both not building a pot for us and also not leading me to believe that he's setting up a big bluff. By making a small raise we allow him to continue with weak value hands (they often can't fold due to some ego thing if you make a small raise), draws, and may even jam air over the top of your small raise. Furthermore, when we get more money in on the flop we've built a bigger pot for the turn as well as simplified our decisions on later streets because the pot will be so big that we don't need to think about folding.

As played, I'd just call turn and call pretty much every river unless we nut up and then I'd raise obviously.
thedoors 12 years, 3 months ago
your not afraid he was semi bluffing a fd flop? what worse than an overpaire of aces can donk flop + bet turn when flush comes?
fi you raise flop what would you do vs a 3bet or a shove?
Pat Blye 12 years, 3 months ago
These are the desired outcomes, we're pretty happy with both but obviously happier with him shoving. The idea is that we're not trying to lose villain and his perceived "wide range".
james 12 years, 3 months ago
The villain is sitting with under 100bb, called a 3 bet OOP, and donked in a 3 bet pot for around 1/3 pot. Those three factors combined lead me to believe that villain isn't a world beater at nl holdem. With that in mind, villain can be leading flop with a range that spans all the way from sets and flush draws to high cards without a spade. Given that range and the likelihood that the opponent is a weaker player he likely can have almost anything on the turn and given stacks and the pot size I would have no problem getting it in on the flop.
Parker Muir 12 years, 3 months ago
" ... villain can be leading flop with a range that spans all the way from sets and flush draws to high cards without a spade."

This is exactly the type of range I put him on as well. Kinda like a "who the hell knows what this guy can have, but its most certainly wide" type range. But against that kind of range, I don't like a flop raise. I just call the flop to keep his entire range in and let him make more mistakes with the weaker parts on the turn. While still getting close to the same value from the stronger portion as he keeps the lead.

On this turn, I'm looking to call again for the same reasons.
Sean Lefort 12 years, 3 months ago
I really don't see him making this donk bet with a set a very high % of the time. I think of the times he flops sets, some X% of the time he may decide to donk them. Of that X% of the time, Y% of the time he decides to use this bet-size. I think neither of X or Y are incredibly high (as neither of them make particularly a whole lot of sense), and thus X*Y = not a very a high % of the time. I think this bet-size is a lot more congruent with {medium strength hands like 7X/3X/2X/PPs, FDs}. That's not to say he won't have a set, but I think against what I believe to be his range after weighting for likelihood of using that donk-size, I think raising the flop is the play. It also lets you dictate the size of the pot depending on the board run-out, as I don't expect to get donk/3bet OTF very often if ever.

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