Nutflush value line?
Posted by zorgar
Posted by
zorgar
posted in
Low Stakes
Nutflush value line?
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (5 Players)
BB: $36.30
UTG: $45.92
CO: $36.09
BN: $25.00
SB: $33.39 (Hero)
UTG: $45.92
CO: $36.09
BN: $25.00
SB: $33.39 (Hero)
Preflop
($0.35)
Hero is SB with
A
4
, , , , ,
Flop
($6.75)
9
2
3
, , , , ,
Turn
($22.25)
9
2
3
7
,
River
($33.25)
9
2
3
7
2
In retrospect i think booth flop and turn sizing are too small with this line. Can someone help me out with sizing here please. Do you think this line is ever decent if its well balanced?
My reasoning is that co has a decent chunk of flushs and possibly all sets (he seems to be coldcalling pretty wide) and he is aggressive enough to know this. Maybe cbetting is the much better option because the bb(TTd-QQd) will come alone and co might raise his flushs anyways.
River is obviously one of the worst cards but since i cant ever fold this anyways i might aswell shove, to get crying calls from anything if he only has 3 combos of 99 here.
Loading 4 Comments...
If he has sets or flushes he is never folding anyway, I'd probably raise bigger on flop to setup a turn shove. That would've saved the river dilemma.
If we want to shove turn then flop raise to 11.5$? turn is going to be just under 20$
Raise bigger OTF. So you set up good turn shove SPR.
Obviously I have no idea if villain is capable of folding 2nd nut flushes on that river or not. Let's first assume he doesn't fold 2nd nut flush:
villain range 99,33-22,AhKd,AcKd,AsKd,KdQd,KdJd,KdTd
Equity hero: 45.15%
Equity range: 54.85%
total pot = 33.25
remaining stack = 17.89
EV push = (.451533.25) - (.548517.89)
EV push = (15.01) - (9.81)
EV push = $5.2
And now let's assume he does fold all 2nd nut flushes just to illustrate a point:
If villain^s calling range otr 99,33-22 then
Equity hero: 0%
Equity range: 100%
EV push = -$17.89
I estimate that villain needs at least 1/3 worse hands in his river calling range (non-nut flushes) to make this shove zero ev or better. If his calling range consists of more than 1/3 non-nut flushes then you profit. If it's less than ~1/3 then you lose.
If villain is a station who can't fold his 2nd nut flushes on the river then your push is good. If not, then you get owned.
Fwiw, my own range for calling otr would be 99, 33, 22. Therefore your best play against me would be to check-fold because I would likely check back all my 2nd 3rd 4th nut flushes, overpairs, and only bet full-houses and quads.
Be the first to add a comment