Nut str8 on paired board vs passive player who CR and value 1/2 pot river

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Nut str8 on paired board vs passive player who CR and value 1/2 pot river

BN: $130.65
SB: $94.64
BB: $273.66
UTG: $159.49
HJ: $223.61 (Hero)
CO: $153.82
Preflop ($1.50) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt K A
UTG folds, Hero raises to $3, CO folds, BN folds, SB calls $2.50, BB folds
Flop ($7.00) J T T (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $4.75, SB calls $4.75
Turn ($16.50) Q (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $11.45, SB raises to $26, Hero calls $14.55
River ($68.50) 9 (2 Players)
SB bets $32

Vilain is 18/10 AF 1.2 he has 10% CR turn

he 3b 1.3% so we can include JJ QQ TT in his range

so I guess it's an easy fold river?

5 Comments

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RaoulFlush 11 years, 4 months ago

yeah...i guess folding seems best...the Q hits our range pretty hard and we approve that by calling his turn raise...and riversizing looks so damn valueish....

Getready2rokk 11 years, 4 months ago

bleh ill prob fold turn vs this massive nit, i know exploitable but hes not gonna exploit it so whatever.
Hes gonna have JJ,TT,TJs and QQ as well.
Rvr is def easy fold

Chael Sonnen 11 years, 4 months ago

He'd likely play 89/AK the same way.
And usually when they have a boat, they bomb it.

You need to be right less than 25% of the time. I cannot imagine you not winning here less than 1/4 times here. You'd only beat by JJ/QQ/QT/JT, and even a passive fish might 3-bet the first two.


Legendary 11 years, 4 months ago

I see a nit calling the turn with 89/ak. Dont think he has 89 in his range even... Maybe he 3bs some ak combos, like aks.

So easy fold river.

Hova 11 years, 4 months ago

Agree with legendary that villain never has 89s here given preflop, and betting river with it would be ambitious. 

I think he can definitely have AK though and JTs/QTs are as unlikely as 89s. But if we give him 1combo JTs say.. we are vs a range of 9 chops and 8 value combos.

We call vs AK we win (half initial pot 9 times) 34.25*9 = $308

We call vs TT-QQ/JTs we lose (river bet 8 times) 32*8 = $256

308-256= +52..      52/34.25 = 1.58 so he needs to do this with AK (9-1.58)= 7.4 combos / 82% the time for us to call given the price we get.

Given sizing + line I think we can weight his range to being more likely AK than boats so I'd call too.

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