Nut str8 on paired board vs passive player who CR and value 1/2 pot river
Posted by papaFR59
Posted by
papaFR59
posted in
Low Stakes
Nut str8 on paired board vs passive player who CR and value 1/2 pot river
BN: $130.65
SB: $94.64
BB: $273.66
UTG: $159.49
HJ: $223.61 (Hero)
CO: $153.82
SB: $94.64
BB: $273.66
UTG: $159.49
HJ: $223.61 (Hero)
CO: $153.82
Preflop
($1.50)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
K
A
UTG folds, Hero raises to $3, CO folds, BN folds, SB calls $2.50, BB folds
UTG folds, Hero raises to $3, CO folds, BN folds, SB calls $2.50, BB folds
Flop
($7.00)
J
T
T
(2 Players)
SB checks,
Hero bets $4.75,
SB calls $4.75
Turn
($16.50)
Q
(2 Players)
SB checks,
Hero bets $11.45,
SB raises to $26,
Hero calls $14.55
River
($68.50)
9
(2 Players)
SB bets $32
Vilain is 18/10 AF 1.2 he has 10% CR turn
he 3b 1.3% so we can include JJ QQ TT in his range
so I guess it's an easy fold river?
Loading 5 Comments...
yeah...i guess folding seems best...the Q hits our range pretty hard and we approve that by calling his turn raise...and riversizing looks so damn valueish....
bleh ill prob fold turn vs this massive nit, i know exploitable but hes not gonna exploit it so whatever.
Hes gonna have JJ,TT,TJs and QQ as well.
Rvr is def easy fold
He'd likely play 89/AK the same way.
And usually when they have a boat, they bomb it.
You need to be right less than 25% of the time. I cannot imagine you not winning here less than 1/4 times here. You'd only beat by JJ/QQ/QT/JT, and even a passive fish might 3-bet the first two.
I see a nit calling the turn with 89/ak. Dont think he has 89 in his range even... Maybe he 3bs some ak combos, like aks.
So easy fold river.
Agree with legendary that villain never has 89s here given preflop, and betting river with it would be ambitious.
I think he can definitely have AK though and JTs/QTs are as unlikely as 89s. But if we give him 1combo JTs say.. we are vs a range of 9 chops and 8 value combos.
We call vs AK we win (half initial pot 9 times) 34.25*9 = $308
We call vs TT-QQ/JTs we lose (river bet 8 times) 32*8 = $256
308-256= +52.. 52/34.25 = 1.58 so he needs to do this with AK (9-1.58)= 7.4 combos / 82% the time for us to call given the price we get.
Given sizing + line I think we can weight his range to being more likely AK than boats so I'd call too.
Be the first to add a comment