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Nut flush OTR after I take a weird line/ misclick OOP.

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

Nut flush OTR after I take a weird line/ misclick OOP.

$1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players

SB: $183 (91.5 bb)
BB: $195.25 (97.6 bb)
Hero (UTG): $277.70 (138.9 bb)
MP: $508.50 (254.3 bb)
CO: $214.25 (107.1 bb)
BTN: $200 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Kh Kd
Hero raises to $6, 2 folds, BTN calls $6, 2 folds

Flop: ($15) 8h 5s 4h (2 players)
Hero bets $18, BTN calls $18

Turn: ($51) Ah (2 players)
Hero bets $28, BTN calls $28

River: ($107) Qh (2 players)
Hero ??

So obv a pretty nice spot. Meant to bet large but not over pot OTF. Villains a tight passive reg who doesnt seem to quite understand the power of position. Running 18/15 so far and raises about 26% from all positions.

So turn was a value bet but made it pretty small as I think I m likely pretty value heavy here so its a pretty bad card for a lot of his range. OTR I think is interesting. What bet will get the most value here? I expect him to have a flush quite often just because I think most hands that peel that turn have a heart back up. What I m curious about though is whether or not you think I have any FE. Again I m probably going to be pretty value heavy but if I can polarize and get non nut flushes to fold I can likely start jamming idk an ace or underpair that somehow doesnt have a flush as a bluff. I have a hard time saying exactly what my range is here though given the strange nature of previous streets.

So do I have any chance of him folding enough when I don t have it? If yes I should probably make a range play and jam here. If he never folds a flush maybe I should make the exploitative play and jam anyways :D.

4 Comments

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james 12 years, 2 months ago
Just make a normal 3/4 size bet IMO. I don't think you're getting hero called very often if you jam by a guy playing 18/15.
WM2K 12 years, 2 months ago
Ya thats what I was thinking. So I thought wow like its nearly never that he gets here with the Kh and therefore I can prolly jam idk whatever non flush hand I have and he has to fold nearly his whole range. I decided to go for the experiment and jam it in. He called with 6x6h :D.
2blave 12 years, 2 months ago
I think a jam gets called as often as a 3/4 bet, or close to it. You are representing a polarised range either way, so it's more about villain's capacity to bluffcatch you. One difficulty I have with these spots is that whether you actually have the nut flush or not creates a very important card removal effect in terms of what villain can have to call you with. Whenever you are bluffing it's possible villain has the nut flush, but when you are value betting you have to rely on your opponent to be heroic.

I think a player like this has a very limited number of second nut flush combos on this board, probably JhTh and JhJx for 4 combos. When you don't have the Kh I'm guessing he only has 0-7 combos containing it, depending on how he plays KJs, KK, and AxKh preflop. These are all maybes to me. The rest of his hands that take this line will probably be TT,99,77,66 with a heart and sets. That's 9 combos that fold almost for sure and 12 maybe but likely folds from the weak flushes. Even with the widest range of Kh and Jh flushes from villain we should try to shove with any hand that missed here.

If you cbet AK-AJ without a heart on this flop that's 27 feasible bluff combos. If you aren't cbetting those hands I'm not sure what hands in your range are going to make the most sense as bluffs. T9s and JTs maybe? I'm not sure what non heart hands you have that bet flop and turn. If it's honestly a low number I can see why you want to bet a non-allin size, but either way I think it's more about the possibility that you have a lot of bluffs from villain's point of view. So if you don't have many bluffs just make an exploitable shove with the nuts here, and if you feel those bluff hands are in your range I would shove those as well as the second nut flush.
Serdec 12 years, 2 months ago
I like betting 1/3 or 1/4, to induce some action due to if we bet 2/3 or 3/4 he is going to fold always, and he will do the monkey with lower frequency than betting 1/3 or 1/4

Greetings :)

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