Nut Ace on a bad turn. 200nl

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Nut Ace on a bad turn. 200nl

HJ: $203
CO: $377.24
BN: $200
SB: $258
BB: $294.85 (Hero)
Preflop ($3.00) (5 Players)
Hero was dealt K A
HJ raises to $6, CO folds, BN folds, SB folds, Hero raises to $20, HJ calls $14
Flop ($43.00) 6 3 Q (2 Players)
Hero bets $20, HJ calls $20
Turn ($83.00) 6 3 Q Q (2 Players)
Hero bets $40
only 120 hands on villain but he s been looser then average from MP so far. This flop is pretty meh as it hits a calling range pretty good (same is true of basically any Q high flop) but with overs and some backdoor help I m putting this in my c betting range. Turn though is pretty rude but we still have the NFD so this hard is pretty ideal for making a range play and having a couple combos of bluffs. He can fold a handful of floats and if I here with say 88-JJ i m often pretty wary as this is a bad card for villains range but he s still betting. I m planning on giving up on the river though as I doubt I have enough FE.

What do you think? Is this sound reasoning?

6 Comments

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Andrew Whelan 12 years, 2 months ago
how would you play your value hands in this spot, AA with a spade? AA without a spade? Qx with and without spades? that will help to construct your semi-bluffing range, as this is a better card for your opponents range, i would check my entire range on this turn, including Qx, ie would check call check fold AA unimproved and check call Qx twice unless a 4th spade hits and we dont have it. When ppl have AA without a spade here they tend to bet for protection from hands like TT with a spade, but your range is protected if you construct it properly it doesnt matter if you check and a 4th spade comes off. i think checking this hand and betting pretty much any river if he checks back is a fine play to balance when you want to bet AA if the turn checks through a similar strategy would be to bet hands like this on the turn along with flushes and check call Qx and hands like AA or KK, as played is close but would consider jamming any river, if i knew a little more about villains tendencies
Andrew Whelan 12 years, 2 months ago
if you do that you have to bet this hand because is basically the only hand you are bluffing in this spot, are there any other hands you are bluffing here? if your rarely bluffing in a spot you should not be value betting thinly and if you have alot of bluff combos you should be value betting thinner in proportion, this goes hand in hand with if your range is strong you should be bluffing as much as you can, but if your range is weak you should be wary of your bluffing frequencies, does that make sense?

ok with this turn betting range, how do you play the river? with JJ KK AA say on a blank? does this mean when you check the river you are always c/folding, do you have a check calling range here?
say you have AA with a spade and a spade rolls off, are you jamming river? if so are you ever bluffing in this spot? seems unlikely

tell me if im wrong, but these are my assumptions:

1. when you bet a blank river you have Qx and flushes and are never bluffing, unless you follow through with this particular hand.

2. When you bet a spade river you have JJ+ with a spade (which is thin) and you are never bluffing.

3. When you check a blank river, you have JJ, KK or AA which are not calling - so i would shove 99 or TT here, against you.

4. when you check a spade river, you have JJ, KK or AA without a spade and are not calling - same as above.

im not saying im right, but im interested to see how you balance
WM2K 12 years, 2 months ago
Ya you basically spelled out how I plan on playing my range on the river here. Is it exploitive? Most definitely and what I am questioning the most is how often he gets to the river with 88-JJ and is he willing to fold. If not then I ll exploit him by jamming my JJ+ for value and if not then I ll jam this hand. I should probably jam this hand anyways along with at least AA just to cover my bae
James Hudson 12 years, 2 months ago
Looks good WM2K, I would bet slightly bigger on the flop and turn though. I feel like going under half pot just tends to get messed with a lot more than exactly half pot and higher.
WM2K 12 years, 2 months ago
Ya maybe I can size it to exactly half pot but I don t like betting larger then that. If anything I don t mind inducing some liter calls here so I can shove the river more clearly rather then trying to guess where it is that villain is folding his pairs.

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