You can create an overbetting balanced strategy for sure, but we play against human and want to exploit them, by making them calling toomuch or foldingtoo much.

Are you sure ppl are calling/folding the perfect amount of bluffcatchers, on a smaller size like 80% ?

My opinion through this spot in general:

Your sizing flop is too small, i bet you're cbetting quite wide like this, and i don't think this is an optimal strategy because our checking range suffer a lot of doing those thing, and we just get less value, we have to bluff less etc...
I think cbetting 45-50% is okay and a reasonnable option, we will not own him by cbet 1/3 pot against his flatting range 2,5x.
It will bet more effective strategy if the guy is flatting 100% . But checking and bluffcatch sometimes this flop with good hands is cool too.

Turn your sizing is too big, i think we allow Ahi and small pps to fold turn vs this size and don't make a big mistake, our risk reward with our bluff/against his float is shitty.
So i would bet smaller here 60-75%

On the river, i bet a lot of decent reg are overblufing here, just because they are just cbetting and barreling quite too much flop and turn, seriously i would not bluffin like this vs a guy who has some ballz and can hero call.

Hey Lilxam ☺️
I would also bet bigger on the flop. On the turn, I agree with jambonbeurre, a more normal sizing seems more adequate on this texture. Just way easier to balance. When u bet 1/3 flop then pot (or overbet, why not right?) the turn, it really seems like a metagame / psychological exploitation. Or youre trying to get into some levelling games for later, or open the option for funky sizings later in the match.

As played, i dislike the overbet river. Idk, somehow its incoherent for you to have a full house, u mostly rep rivered straight. Lets say u had overbet turn, u still could have any 3x, an also overpairs and 87. As played on this river, its hard to picture u value bet JJ this way for instance.
I think u just made your life too complicated on this hand, and that doesnt look like a good board / situation to develop this kind of sizing strat imho.

I would not bluff with this hand on the river. The blockers are great, but the fact that you win at showdown sometimes makes the EV of checking pretty hard to overcome by the EV of bluffing. A hand like J9 would certainly be a lot better hand to bluff with here (the EV of checking would be pretty much 0 whereas bluffing should be slightly +EV given blockers that we should have, versus a GTO calling range that is).

Ya don't think u beat ev of checking w this bet otr

Yeah I agree with what has been said here.
I think flop 20$+ is fine.
Turn 1/2-3/4 is good. Against a pot size villain can just call good hands and fold the rest so it's not very hard for him.
And river no more than pot.

But as ibey33 said, checking the river has a higher ev than betting with my hand. And I prefer to bluff other combos.

Thanks for your answers !