NLH Game Theory Trying to get a better grasp
Posted by Chris Bowling
Posted by
Chris Bowling
posted in
High Stakes
NLH Game Theory Trying to get a better grasp
Hi guys. Normally play 3/6 and 2/4 nlh on Bovada. Starting to play a little 5/10 nlh now and against better competition.
I'm trying to understand Game Theory better. To be able to conceptualize it more.
Question #1:
If we show up on the river with a perfectly polarized range, and we make a bet, how does are EV change from your opponent calling and folding the appropriate amount, to your opponent calling with every hand that can beat a bluff? First of all, does this just mean that your value hands make more money now, but since your bluffs lose more money now, your EV still stays the same? Or does it mean since your opponent is now playing a strategy furthur away from game theory, he is now losing more money to you in the long run?
Question #2:
I looked in my database at hands villains 3bet vs my utg open. Saw a hand where the HJ 3bet 64o preflop. With playing game theory, if you play a perfectly balanced range preflop/flop/turn/river vs their bet sizings, will my EV stay the same because I am appropriately folding the right amount of hands and calling with the right amount? Or from his perspective, maybe his optimal 3bet frequency is say 4% of all hands preflop, but say since he's 3betting 64o, maybe he's 3betting 30% of hands (technical I know he's basically 3betting everything because he's 3betting 64o, but let's just say 30%), do all the extra hands he's playing now have a negative expectation attached to them?
I've read a ton and watched videos incorporating a lot of game theory concepts to my game, thinking "this hand belongs in this range, so I'm going to call in this spot", ect...but I want to understand it even better. What I'm really wondering is if your playing an optimal strategy and your opponents are really far from optimal, is your strategy inherently just going to net you money. Basically if you visualize every single hand in your opponents range and maybe all the ones that are supposed to be part of their optimal range maybe have a 0 EV expectation or +EV expectation, but do the ones that would fall out of an optimal strategy, to they lose your opponent money, therefore making you money?
Something I'm trying to get at, is I'm a reg that grinds for a living and I basically have my set strategy I do in spots and don't deviate much from it. I'm thinking on how to improve my own game and want to find spots where maybe I'm defending more/less than optimal or bluffing more/less than optimal, and when I'm facing opponents in similar situations, executing an optimal stragegy vs them in those spots and possibly improving my overall expectation (if it works like that). Maybe there is a spot where I'm bluffing too much.
It seems like poker is a game where its all about winning the most equity with every hand in your range. Say maybe preflop, other players are folding hands from the bb, where your actually 3betting those hands and losing less money per hand than 1bb and calling profitably with other hands those players are 3betting, and your strategy is realizing more equity than other players' strategies you play against. If other player's strategies are not realizing as much equity as you are, I assume that means your making more money than they are?
Trying to understand game theory better. Feel like I've asked a lot of different questions that can maybe illuminate my thought process and thinking. A lot of my questions I feel like are similar in nature. Thanks!
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Hi Chris, it would take a book to answer these questions correctly and thoroughly but having found myself thinking along similar lines recently, here's my two cents;
#1 I don't want to read too much into your choice of wording but I'm not sure you always want to end up at the river with a "perfectly polarised range". If you mean to say that in a particular example, you end up at the river with an equal number of bluffs and value hands then how does your opponents strategy effect your EV and what can we do about it?
In general, when you have a lot of bluffs in your range (ie, this spot you're talking about) then you'll want to go as large as possible. I believe Steve Paul has made some great videos on this subject;
http://www.runitonce.com/poker-training/videos/bluff-value-ratios/
#2 Again, you're not looking to play a "balanced" range, what you're looking to do is be "unexploitable". ie not fold too much or too little. I guess what you mean is to say is play a "solid" range as opposed to "balanced" in this case?
If the optimal strategy is to 3bet 4% of hands (because all of these are profitable) does that mean that 26% of hands now have a - EV attached to them? Is this what you're asking? The simple answer here is no.
It may well be the case that 3betting 30% is proftable in these games - if villain is exploiting the population over folding (either pre flop or on later streets).
Because you don't often know what your opponents strategy is, you just end up defaulting to your "solid" strategy because you know it's not exploitable.
#3 In order to improve / tweak your set strategy one of the things you might like to try is deviation (especially useful if you have a set strategy / range). Let's say that your 3 bet bluff range (Hijack Vs UTG) is AJo & KQo and your question is am I 3 betting enough and what are the optimal hands? Just 3 bet 8Ts, 79s and 68s for say 30 occasions and test the results.
I honestly think the best approach here is to constantly test theories and ideas. Partly because no one is going to be able to give you definite answers and partly because everyone is going to have slightly different results.
A good place to start might be to ask questions. Vs (regs playing a solid GTO-esque style) am I;
Folding too much? Call slightly wider than usual and mark / review those hands as a collection and work out EV. Maybe when you're like "Ugggh, I think I would normally fold here but it's a really close..." maybe call 50 occasions like this and test how right / wrong you were.
Bluffing too much? Increase your bluff frequencies slightly when you're like "uggh, it's close, I think I'll give up here on this occasion but I would sometimes bluff" Mark the hands and see how you fared.
The more you adopt this kind of testing / tweaking strategy, the more you'll tend towards your optimal strategy for the games you're in.
Question #1 Our river betting range and SIZING should make our opponent indifferent to calling or folding. In addition to balancing our range we have to make sure our river bet sizing corresponds to that balance. Since almost no villains will play this spot perfectly we theoretically print money.
Understanding this spot from the betting point of view will also help you play as the caller. If say, for example, you find yourself betting on the river with a missed draw and you know that your range will have a lot of this air type hand in it, you'll obviously want to go larger, perhaps even overbetting. By going larger, you hope to make your opponent indifferent. When you're faced with a similar situation as the caller, and villain bets 1/2 pot, it's just so so easy to click call.
Question #1:
If you are betting OTR with a perfectly polarized and balanced range, you are making your opponent indifferent for calling or folding his/her bluffcatchers (which are 100% of his range in this case I assume) and all of your opponent's bluffcatchers are 0 EV calls (and 0 EV when folding). If your opponent is folding more than 1-A, your best response to his strategy is to start bluffing more than the perfectly balanced range allows you since your opponent is deviating from the equalibrium and is exposed to exploiting, which you should be doing then. Same goes when your opponent starts calling with all of his bluffcatcher, which really likely would mean that he is calling way more than 1-A: you can start adjusting and bluff less.
Playing "GTO" is the way to go when making sure no one can exploit you but in most cases it's not the most +EV strategy to choose since very few players are actually playing GTO and thus you increase your EV by deviating from GTO and exploit your opponent's tendencies.
Question #2:
Let's put it this way: does your EV change if you play the same range vs
a) 1% 3 betting range
b) 100% 3 betting range?
Yeah, your EV does change and it's going up. Poker being zero-sum game, one player's increased EV can't come anywhere else than from the opponent's EV.
Should you always stick to the same defending range in a) and b) ? No, you shouldn't. Ofcourse you can and many times you should stick to your predefined ranges untill you have more information about your opponent's tendencies and then you can again start to adjust and deviate from your previous strategy to the proper direction.
I'm not sure did I answer to your questions but hope these 2 cents help.
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