NL600 XC Down Top Pair

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

NL600 XC Down Top Pair

SB: $600 (100 bb)
BB: $1,276.65 (212.8 bb)
Hero (MP): $618 (103 bb)
CO: $600 (100 bb)
BTN: $769.72 (128.3 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Jd Kc
Hero raises to $18, CO calls $18, 3 folds

Flop: ($45) 2s Kd 7s (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $24, Hero calls $24

Turn: ($93) 9c (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $66, Hero calls $66

River: ($225) 6c (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $186

Results: $597 pot ($3 rake)
Final Board: 2s Kd 7s 9c 6c
Hero mucked Jd Kc and lost (-$294 net)
CO showed 9s 9d and won $594 ($300 net)

Villain is a solid winning reg playing 26/19 with a 9% 3bet. His cbet stats by street which obviously don't directly pertain to this hand but I think are relevant are 57%/49%/36%.

So it's $186 to call for a pot of $411 meaning I need 31.15% equity to breakeven.

He isn't the super barrely type and gives up a decent amount of the time when bluffing, especially when it comes to firing a 3rd barrel. However, I don't think he always shuts down. I feel like my hand is pretty face up as being KQ-KTs and QQ-TT which I think is ok given that this player isn't the type to apply a super amount of pressure.

Board: Kd7s2s9c6c
    Equity    Win    Tie
MP2    32.00%    32.00%    0.00%  { KcJd }
MP3    68.00%    68.00%    0.00%  { 99, 77, 22, KQs, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, As8s, As6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, KQo }

The following is an estimated range that I've given him. It's tough to accurately guess how many hands he's going to fire 3 barrels with so I've only included the only major draws he could have and nothing else. As this range provides me with 32% equity, it appears that my call would be super marginally profitable if he barrels with this exact range.

If he 3bets any of those hands preflop or wouldn't 3 barrel a hand like AsJs but would check down instead then a river call becomes a losing call.

Any critique on my thoughts are very much welcome!


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