NL600 XC Down Top Pair
Posted by UpUpAndAway
Posted by UpUpAndAway posted in Mid Stakes
NL600 XC Down Top Pair
SB: $600 (100 bb)
BB: $1,276.65 (212.8 bb)
Hero (MP): $618 (103 bb)
CO: $600 (100 bb)
BTN: $769.72 (128.3 bb)
Preflop: Hero is MP with Jd Kc
Hero raises to $18, CO calls $18, 3 folds
Flop: ($45) 2s Kd 7s (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $24, Hero calls $24
Turn: ($93) 9c (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $66, Hero calls $66
River: ($225) 6c (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $186
Results: $597 pot ($3 rake)
Final Board: 2s Kd 7s 9c 6c
Hero mucked Jd Kc and lost (-$294 net)
CO showed 9s 9d and won $594 ($300 net)
Villain is a solid winning reg playing 26/19 with a 9% 3bet. His cbet stats by street which obviously don't directly pertain to this hand but I think are relevant are 57%/49%/36%.
So it's $186 to call for a pot of $411 meaning I need 31.15% equity to breakeven.
He isn't the super barrely type and gives up a decent amount of the time when bluffing, especially when it comes to firing a 3rd barrel. However, I don't think he always shuts down. I feel like my hand is pretty face up as being KQ-KTs and QQ-TT which I think is ok given that this player isn't the type to apply a super amount of pressure.
Board: Kd7s2s9c6c
Equity Win Tie
MP2 32.00% 32.00% 0.00% { KcJd }
MP3 68.00% 68.00% 0.00% { 99, 77, 22, KQs, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, As8s, As6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, KQo }
The following is an estimated range that I've given him. It's tough to accurately guess how many hands he's going to fire 3 barrels with so I've only included the only major draws he could have and nothing else. As this range provides me with 32% equity, it appears that my call would be super marginally profitable if he barrels with this exact range.
If he 3bets any of those hands preflop or wouldn't 3 barrel a hand like AsJs but would check down instead then a river call becomes a losing call.
Any critique on my thoughts are very much welcome!
Loading 8 Comments...
Be the first to add a comment
You must upgrade your account to leave a comment.
This thread has been locked. No further comments can be added.