NL600 This spot shouldn't be that difficult...
Posted by UpUpAndAway
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UpUpAndAway
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Mid Stakes
NL600 This spot shouldn't be that difficult...
Party, $3/$6 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 4 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.
Hero (SB): $630 (105 bb)
BB: $600 (100 bb)
CO: $600 (100 bb)
BTN: $622.05 (103.7 bb)
Preflop: Hero is SB with 9d 9s
CO raises to $18, BTN folds, Hero raises to $60, BB folds, CO calls $42
Flop: ($126) Th Jd 8s (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks
Turn: ($126) 2c (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $84
Villain is 22/17 with a 75% foldto3b after 700 hands.
I think a flop check/call is standard. I think I'll have enough barrel bluff opportunities with AQ/KQ that I don't have to turn 99 into a bluff on this board.
I don't think there's much merit to betting the turn after the flop goes check-check for the same reasons I didn't bet the flop. I suppose villain could be delay cbet bluffing but the fact of the matter is that the board smacks his range and I'm unlikely to get paid on the river if I do hit. However, my range is capped to a hand like AT at best so it's a pretty decent spot to take a stab.
Simple fold?
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I ran a quick equity calculation and against the following range we have 51.5% equity:
A3cc-A9cc
AT-AQ, KQ, QJ, KJ, KT (includes both suited/offsuit)
I see how calling can feel uncomfortable and capped, but with this much equity, I find it hard to believe that folding is the best option.
After examining villain's betting range on this turn it makes me want to check the river if we hit our straight. Thoughts?
this range seems quite wide for betting this turn. I think some of his straight draws would have bet the flop, and most of his Tx will be checking this turn. They are too strong to bluff but are unlikely to get called by worse.
I figure villains betting range is mostly Jx, air, and the super rare slowplay (and I guess maybe 22 if he flats it pre which I think most don't).
how can a player with such a fold to 3bet have A3-9s and QJ, KT stuff in his range ?
Misread HH thought villain was BTN. Still probably too many Axs for 75% F3B though.
What about check-shoving turn?
other than xjam it seems like call would be fine as I think villain will give up with most of his air except when we hit our straight, which is obviously fine with us.
I'm pretty sure most players wouldn't check back two pairs / set OTF, so it's a very sexy spot to XRAI an overpair OTT IMO.
Same goes with 99, we have decent equity when called, and a lot of FE.
I'm x calling the turn.
Me too, what is the river ?
i think yes, ch/f here. player with such a high foldt3bet will smash this board so often. you will have AT, QJ, maybe some overpairs which can ch/c rvr. Also, i think for him when you ch/c its kinda obviuos you have some SD value and big chunk of it aint folding this rvr. so he shouldnt just autobluff it
If villain bets AQ and KQ on the turn, then I think we have to call turn.
It's hard to put up a range on villain which we doesn't have at least 40% equity against. We only need 29%. However, this doesn't factor in the fact that he could barrel us off with AQ,KQ etc on blank rivers where we might have to fold and lose our 100% equity-share (against those hands).
i hate spots like this, where we are obviously capped. For that matter though, so is he. What is the top of his range? AJ? maybe QQ? Issue is that we look even more capped when we check flop and turn as many wiffed c/r hands probably bet turn to build some sort of pot and still need protection. I'm not sure, 99 is like the bottom of our range I guess, other than maybe AK that could play like this. In some ways though, after the guy bets turn, he doesn't have much Tx so 99 actually is better hand to have than ATs
I would x/f all streets, hope to show down vs a-high or something like that. Can't rly see the merits of check/calling flop nor turn. Loads of reversed implied odds, and it's like litterally impossible for us to improve and get paid off. What are the meaning of check/calling , most of the times he will have us beat or overs and gutshot/oesd? Hard to get to showdown vs those.
board hits villains range fairly good as well.
I can't imagine doing anything other than x/c
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