NL600 KK squeeeeeeeeze

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

NL600 KK squeeeeeeeeze

SB: $627.29 (104.5 bb)
Hero (BB): $600 (100 bb)
MP: $946.30 (157.7 bb)
CO: $609 (101.5 bb)
BTN: $736.46 (122.7 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Ks Kh
MP raises to $18, CO calls $18, 2 folds, Hero raises to $79, MP folds, CO calls $61

Both villains are regs. UTG has an 18% UTG VPIP. CO is a fairly newish reg that I don't have any noteworthy reads on playing 25/19. Fold to 3bet in position/out of position are 58%/85% over 1.4k hands.

Flop: ($179) 4s 7s 5h (2 players)
Hero bets $126, CO calls $126

Since the board is fairly draw heavy and a lot of nasty cards can change it quickly, I decide to bet fairly large to set up a 2 street all in with my entire continuing range of AA-QQ and flush draws.

Turn: ($431) 3d (2 players)

So this turn card isn't ideal but at the same time, it isn't as bad as it appears. Villain should never show up with 6x besides 66 and even 44/55/77 should be discounted since he might not call an UTG raise from MP with those lower PPs and might fold to the squeeze even if he does flatcall the first raise.

I think his range on the turn is something like a few combos of sets, maybe 1 discounted combo of 66, hands like 88-JJ, and a few flush draw combos although I block many with the Ks. So maybe AQss, AJss, ATss, QJss, QTss.

Should I be continuing with my plan and still jamming this turn with KK here in hopes of getting hero called by 88-JJ? I'm going to pay off the rare set regardless of if I check/call or jam anyway and I don't want to give a free card to the 5 spade combos. Plus the 24 combos of overpairs might hero call thinking that I wouldn't shove overpairs on this turn so my hand may look more like spades or even AsKx/AxKs.

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