nl600: Is this a crazy fold?

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nl600: Is this a crazy fold?

PokerStars - €6 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

MP: 67.67 BB
CO: 98.64 BB
BTN: 100 BB
SB: 347.35 BB
BB: 60.01 BB
Hero (UTG): 478.37 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 4s As
Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, BTN calls 3 BB, SB calls 2.5 BB, fold

Flop : (10 BB, 3 players) 7s 2s 8s
SB checks, Hero bets 7 BB, BTN calls 7 BB, fold

Turn : (24 BB, 2 players) Kh
Hero bets 18 BB, BTN calls 18 BB

River : (60 BB, 2 players) 7c
Hero checks, BTN bets 72 BB and is all-in, fold

I have very little information about BTN , about 244 hds he seems like a passive player 23/13/4.8 agg 28 fold to flop cbet 70. SB is a big fish.

15 Comments

Loading 15 Comments...

Disharmonist 10 years ago

9 combos of houses (KKK discounted) vs a somewhat equal number of weaker flushes that are rhard to guess. Would be good to know which hands he fastplays on monotone, and which he doesnt. I think flushes are raised more often on flop and turn.

The fold is not super crazy if you think villain is not super crazy.

klamsauce 10 years ago

I feel like we should probably call A4s and fold like AJs give the AJ is going to block some of his other potential flushes he plays this way, making him more likely to have a boat. It may just be a fold with everything but if we want to call sometimes, I think that seems like an ok randomizer.

fwiw i dunno if he even takes this river sizing with a flush. it looks more polarized than that. especially given we know he cant have the nut flush, an overbet w like the q high flush seems like overkill here. hard to really be sure though.

Disharmonist 10 years ago

Never thought of blocking weaker flushes with the 2nd card. It takes away up to 3 combos. I dont think he bets necessarly too polarizing when we represent so little. We wont have houses ourselfs unless we got a history of double floating and inducing river bluffs and some crazy meta stuff. And its also uncommon to hold an ace high flush here wtih this line.

klamsauce 10 years ago

Yeah I just mean polarizing in that he might not overbet shove like QJss he may just bet 6/10ths pot or whatever it is. I also don't think we represent very little really. We can have 77,88,kk, all flushes and check the river I think. All those hands seem like they could go bet bet check.

Maybe we should just bet the river. That hasn't really been mentioned.

Disharmonist 10 years ago

I would have honestly jammed my self because i wouldnt find a x/fold anyways against the field i am playing against and the reputation i seem to have. But thats mainly player dependant.

UpUpAndAway 10 years ago

This seems pretty reasonable against the passive villain. If he bets 2/3 on the river then I think the decision becomes a lot tougher but I can't see him overjamming rivewr with too many lower FDs in this spot.

Disharmonist 10 years ago

Wouldnt it be pretty exploitable to bet small when we have the middle of the value range and always overjam with nuts or air?

UpUpAndAway 10 years ago

I wouldn't count on a 23/13 overjamming the river with small flushes in order to not be exploited by betting less than all in. I don't think it's a huge assumption given that his preflop stats are passive and likely less than optimal so I'm not counting on his river jams being optimal either.

To answer your question, you're right but all it would take was for villain to mix in a few nut combos with a 2/3 pot bet.

Sauce123 10 years ago

You absolutely need to bet this hand on the river against almost all opponents. He'll have a lot of pair+spade hands, and very few unpaired floats here given you have As. Once he shoves, you can fold if he's a nit but otherwise I think you find a call because some people play a smaller flush this way and your pot odds will be getting serious.

Tyler Forrester 10 years ago

Obviously he can have a set. He can also shove flushes and bluffs. Its likely that a 23/13 perceives a flush as a nuts on this board texture against this action, so its a call. I think the sizing is irrelevant to the decision because we beat some of his "nut" hands.

Dennis Gall 10 years ago

just as a small sidenote. you have A4s and not AQs, so you do not block any of the broadway flush combos.

thegrinder12 10 years ago

We can valuebet river

77 1
88 3

22 3

7 combos will beat us

KQs 1
KJs 1
KTs 1
QJs 1
QTs 1
9Ts 1
JJ(with a spade) 3

AK (one spade) 2 (sometimes AK plays this way)

11 combo's we will beat

shibulon 10 years ago

Its closer than that mang. Your counting is a bit flawed with no weighting and you missed 78s

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