nl600 Do i need bluff river range ?
Posted by Juan Copani
Posted by
Juan Copani
posted in
Mid Stakes
nl600 Do i need bluff river range ?
BN: $1000.70
SB: $609 (Hero)
BB: $600
SB: $609 (Hero)
BB: $600
Preflop
($9.00)
(3 Players)
Hero was dealt
8
7
BN raises to $12.42, Hero raises to $42, BB folds, BN calls $29.58
BN raises to $12.42, Hero raises to $42, BB folds, BN calls $29.58
Flop
($93.00)
A
4
5
(2 Players)
Hero bets $54,
BN calls $54
Turn
($201.00)
A
4
5
5
(2 Players)
Hero bets $117,
BN calls $117
River
($435.00)
A
4
5
5
3
(2 Players)
Hero bets $396, and is all in,
BN calls $396
Final Pot
Hero has
8
7
BN has
Q
A
BN
wins $1222.50
Villain is 25/23, OR BTN 68%, fold 3b 73%.
fold cbets % in 3b pots: 33% flop ( 21 sample) , 25% turn (8 sample) ; 44% and 39% in normal pots
I think he would go broke pre with TT+ AQs+
When i came to the river with my missdraw, this is literally the worst hand of my range. I have some aggresive dynamic with this villan. In a vaccuum i feel he is calling me with a lot of Ax hands, but at the same time if i don´t bluff this hand, i don´t bluff nothing. Am i obligated to bluff ? How important is for my general game plan maintain at least some combo bluffs in a spot where he will have a hard time to find a fold of a hand like AJ, definetly not folding AQ.
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My gut feeling is that the river shove is lighting money on fire. Especially when his fold to 3bet is slightly high so he may not be calling with that maney bad aces, making AQ and AJ very likely and once he calls the turn I think it may be optimistic to think that he's folding the river.of course it's not impossible so I guess it depends on history to some extent. But then again like you say you should have some bluffs here so I'm not sure. Guess this post doesn't help much.
I like your play and even though I actually though ... wow, this dude is having Ax a ton and won´t ever fold, this most likely is some biased feeling. We need 47% fold equity and once he called flop and turn with some mid pairs (hoping for free showdown?) or flush draws or whatever I think we get close to the fold% we need.
If you stopped bluffing the river you would actually make it pretty easy for Villain to float you two streets with hands like 66-TT and just fold the river once you smash it.
By the way, how do you come to him going broke with TT, AQs? Such a high 4b/call%? He´s folding 73%, so from my experience I´d say he´s calling a ton like TT, even JJ and go broke with QQ+, AK.
I think I like the idea of having some bluffs here. If villain really is calling down with his whole turn calling range then obviously we're making a mistake from an exploitative sense. If it is a mistake though, it should be a small one seen as we're not bluffing with many combos and getting calling by a hand like A6 or 99 should let us know that villain is likely calling down too light in a lot of spots.
Table is broke, we are 3 handed. And i think he could go broke a little bit lighter pre against me since i 3bet him wider than average, and made a few bluffs on him before. Even calling 3bets wider against me, so i think he has some more Ax´s hands than AJ and AQ. I agree with he is the kind of player who will tend to just flat my 3b with TT-JJ, but im confident the he could put those hands in his stack off pre range against me, specially because we are 3 handed, and people tend to play different in this situation ( more aggresive, more leveling ) .
River is about PSB, so villain will need 33% vs your range-
Idk your exact 3b 3brl range, but I think it would include AQ+ and AA 100%. Adding in AJ will change things up a bit.
Hand 0: 33.333% { AdQh }
Hand 1: 66.667% 50.00% { AA, AQs+, Td9d, 9d8d, 8d7d, AQo+ }
Would make him indifferent on the river vs PSB. Just make sure if you have in 86dd and 74dd type hands, you'll have more 8 hi hands in your range on the river that might feel obligated to bluff. You can see already how you can bluff so few missed FD hands.
Here'd be a range vs him calling AT+ on the river, and adding in AJ into our 3brl for a more aggro dynamic
Hand 0: 33.333% {AQs-ATs, AQo-ATo }
Hand 1: 66.667% { AA, AJs+, Td9d, Td8d, 9d8d, 9d7d, 8d7d, AJo+ }
Which shows you can bluff a touch more.
My value-river-range also includes A4s and A5s. Probably AJ too.
AQ isnt the hand we re trying to make indifferent imo. He should be pretty happy calling down with it. I d say we re targeting hands like AT and less.
Ya I agree, I mean I included the 2nd range to kinda get a jist for how often we can bluff. In that we have AJ, but no A5s, and no A2s (assume juancopani meant that instead of A4s).
Just chuck in the range and play around with it, knowing for every 2 value combos added, you can add 1 bluff combo. Adding two A5s means one more- JTdd, and adding 3 A2s, means a QJdd and an occasional QTdd.
River play is horrible but I think you went wrong on the turn. Hopefully someone can agree with me and give a full explanation but im just too mentally drained.
I´m something lost with your post. All i can say is that if i see him calling with 99 in this river i just quit poker. It´s almost impossible.
How would you played AK ? You know that many midstakes villain´s could check behind hands like AT if i check.. Not surprise if i see someone do it with AJ too.. ! An AQ in extreme nit cases where they think that value doesn´t exists if they bet.
"All i can say is that if i see him calling with 99 in this river i just quit poker."
:D
just think you should c/f river. tbh, I dont think people fold a hand like AJ/AT anywhere enough as they should. You need to get them to fold like 32% and I am hard pressed to find enough combos that are going to fold, so think river is pretty yuck.
Its not as bad against an opponent I plan to play with a lot, because I may get some of this $$$ back with him leveling himself to much in future spots. But in a vacuum, I think its pretty bad. From a theory perspective, I understand your reasoning this is the bottom of your range (68dd/78dd/67dd), you should maybe have more of a bluffing range but in reality ace high boards naturally are not great spots to be that wide bluffing 3 streets and A-5-x-5 is def. not a great three barrel once they call turn as their alarm bells usually go off on the turn and its p rare they call to fold the river. good luck.
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