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RaoulFlush 4 years, 11 months ago

Therefore its a single raised pot, you essentially turned 2nd nuts OTR...Never folding here.
BUT: I dont care about the straight flush draw: I haz full house here!

downflux01 4 years, 11 months ago

Flop: I dislike the bigger sizing multiway. Equities run way closer then and max Id bet would be half pot. Considering his range I dont think hes randomly clicking here with another player left to act and he imo has at least a strong FD+straight draw (98s, 87s. Other than that you block his KQs and Q9s maybe, but dont see him flatting that PF)

Turn: Without a raise OTF Im usually considering to keep on betting here. We have all the better overpairs, but with his raise Id assume he either has some weak fd draw (which we beat anyway) or some monster, so check here it is for me

River: That being said, I dont know which value hands we are targeting on the river. With my assumptions, Id probably bet small to get a crying call from his rivered straight or induce raises with his other missed FDs. So I wouldnt bet that big

I expect to get slain for this opinion, but I think you have one of the hands where I actually would consider folding regardless of your absolute hand strength. There is no FD he could have connected on the river with to decide putting in his money is good and bluffing with a missed FD on such a board.. I wouldnt expect that from population (plus even if he bluffs 87s and 98s, he still has the double the amount of quads, giving you 33% equity.. but you need 35%).

RaoulFlush 4 years, 11 months ago

So you really think about folding Topboat vs unknown at NL5?
Even though i like your thoughtprocess in general, IMO there is way too much of spazz going on at these games to ever fold this 1

downflux01 4 years, 11 months ago

Cant somehow reply to you RaoulFlush but yeah. I mean I would have made the sigh-call in game probably as well before the analysis and agree there are some spazzes happening, but rarely see it on such boards and with a raise on two streets.. dont think people are going to try and bluff-represent quads often, when you would get called by a lot of player with a FH

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