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NL5z QJ TP merged X/R gets called OTF and third d hits OTT - How do we continue?

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NL5z QJ TP merged X/R gets called OTF and third d hits OTT - How do we continue?

Blinds: $0.02/$0.05 (6 Players) BN: $5.07
SB: $13.19
BB: $6.74 (Hero)
UTG: $5.19
MP: $7.00
CO: $5.27
Preflop ($0.07) Hero is BB with Q J
2 folds, CO raises to $0.11, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.06
Flop ($0.24) Q 3 9
Hero checks, CO bets $0.10, Hero raises to $0.30, CO calls $0.20
Turn ($0.84) Q 3 9 2
Hero bets $0.41, CO calls $0.41
River ($1.66) Q 3 9 2 A
Hero checks, CO bets $0.52, Hero calls $0.52

I felt the board was dry enough to go for a merged X/R line here, primarily for value and protection.

OTT should we have gone bigger (pot?) repping the flush after our X/R & at the same time turning our hand into a semi-bluff with picking up some equity from the flush draw, primarily to attack AJ and KJ and maybe even get value from A9/K9? Or check? (I'm a bit confused how to continue such a merged raising line OTF with a middling hand when called in general...)

With the flush and the A hitting and a lot of V's calling range OTT and thin-medium value betting range OTR having us beat, do we just fold OTR with such a small sizing? I see a lot of bs bluff-bets on NL5z on stars when checked to, so this makes folding difficult, but this one felt very value heavy.

6 Comments

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Shaun Pauwels 4 years, 4 months ago

Turn should be a check. When we checkraise merged we often check turn. This turn we would want to bet polarized and this hand doesn't fit in there.

Jeff_ 4 years, 4 months ago

Actually we can clarify it, this turn we still likely betting merged(it mostly comes down what kinda range we x/R flop). Why?
Our flop x/R range consist from Qx (mostly check turn), 2 pairs (can't bet if use polarized size) sets (same) 0 EV bluffs (they wont bet ever) good bluffs (they dont care much about size) flushes (prefer mid small size).
Hero dont have as many flushes as they mixing flop. So we have no advantage in flushes.
I rarely see after flop x/R big sizings from OOP on flush turn card. Moslty 1/3 - 3/4

Gino Song 4 years, 4 months ago

Dont c/r these types of hands on these boards oop, you arent protecting yourself from anything since draws dont fold and made hands better than yours wont fold either.

If you want to c/r top pair then do with something like A8 on 822 OOP since villain can be better worse and you get value, or villain bet folds his overs and you deny his equity (protection).

Notice how in the second case you are getting value and protection when you c/r a medium strength hand and in the hand you posted you are not doing so.

As played, check the turn as the diamond gives too many flushes in his range since he didnt 3bet your flop c/r and called as well as those Qx better than yours. This is the problem with c/r a hand like this and then getting called.

River is just an awful spot, you block JT and diamonds so villains bluffing range is pretty narrow. Guy probably raises a flush on the turn, so river hes probably 1/3 pot with some 2 pair hands and no bluffs.

jlew2008 4 years, 4 months ago

What are we protecting from? This doesn't seem like the type of hand that should need or want protection. We're risking getting blown off of our hand, we have a great TP hand against a wide LP range, and we block quite a few hands we would want protection against - JT, J9, KJ, daimond draws, etc. Given our hand and positions, I'd just sit back and xc all the way down.

Once the turn comes, what are we protecting against, and what are we trying to get value from? Diamonds got there. Gutshot straights, aside from specifically KdJx and KdTx, are feeling pretty bad. They also pick up a bit of equity and could blow us off of our hand. QT, Q8, JT, Ad3x(?) seem to be the few hands that can call a turn bet. We do pick up the pot quite a bit, but we're going to bloat the pot OOP and could face difficult turn and river decisions.

River we do have to just sigh call imo. The A sucks, but he isn't taking a hand like KQ for value here. He could value bet Ad or a flush, but he also has no SDV with a hand like JT. Getting 4 to 1, he doesn't need many bluffs.

HawksWin 4 years, 4 months ago

You can literally check/raise here 18% of the time if you only use KQ+, 2 pair, sets and equity driven bluffs. I doubt solver will raise that often in your spot since CO range is much tighter and stronger than a button in this spot. So, we can cut some of the fat from the above range and polarize even more here.

QJo I would simply x/c it and play a turn. If you felt the need to raise something merged (not saying it's right), I would choose something like 77/66/55/44 with a diamond where we can catch in a nutted fashion when we catch set AND also avoid the spots where the card that makes our set can make a nutted hand for our opponent. In the above case, I would avoid raising 88 in this spot since it would fill our set and also fill his 16 combos of OESD's that he is for sure to continue with vs a x/r of this size. 98 is a bad raise since our 2 pair outs fill the OESD again. 43s could work but the outs are tainted when we catch the 4 or 3 of diamonds.

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