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NL50z QJs 3b pot OOP

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

NL50z QJs 3b pot OOP

Blinds: $0.25/$0.50 (6 Players) BN: $52.85
SB: $55.93
BB: $54.16
UTG: $80.89
MP: $86.29
CO: $61.39 (Hero)
Preflop ($0.75) Hero is CO with J Q
2 folds, Hero raises to $1.25, BN raises to $4.00, 2 folds, Hero calls $2.75
Flop ($8.75) 8 9 6
Hero checks, BN checks
Turn ($8.75) 8 9 6 4
Hero bets $10.00, BN calls $10.00
River ($28.75) 8 9 6 4 6
Hero checks, BN checks

27/22/12 h:100

My question is, shoudl we fire river? If so, with what frequency and what size? I just gave up, river is too bad for us.

7 Comments

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forCarlotta 5 years, 3 months ago

Villain should cbet his value hands OTF when he doesn't you realize he should somewhat capped and fire an overbet OTT which I like to make him fold his marginal holding. I like your line...

Regarding the river, well, your overbet should have folded out all his draws leaving him with marginal overpairs. I would expect something like TT here. But the real question is if you bet OTR what he would do, I guess it is player dependent

DNegs98 5 years, 3 months ago

If you're folding draws to this turn overbet you're massively overfolding, also just don't fold draws to the effective nuts IP

frontdoorbackdoor 5 years, 3 months ago

Think I would be folding or 4betting pre with this hand OOP. Overbet turn seems good as villain seems capped but river is a spot I wouldn't expect many more folds. He is probably folding unpaired hands on the turn and you block flush draws that are calling turn to fold river.

zigdon7h 5 years, 3 months ago

I think this river reduce our strong hands.
villan overpairs are now better two pairs than our two pairs combos.
We dont have good showdown value and can bet someties but mainly giveup is better.
If the board doest pair it can be better to fire the river ..

DNegs98 5 years, 3 months ago

So this is a really weird hand in that it really shouldn't play out how we conventionally think it would. This starts by checking to the preflop aggressor, I actually think you should be donking here and I'll go over why. Essentially the advantage of the preflop raiser comes in their AK and QQ+ that never or rarely have in this spot but on this board those hands aren't exactly weak but they're not strong enough to overcome your condensed range that hits this board extremely hard, to the point where the ranges I use in these spots give you 55% equity here, if that sounds kind of really high just try to come up with the worst hand in your range (spoilers it's KJ which is still 2 overs and a backdoor straight). 20% of villain's range is going to be made up of overpairs but 13% of yours is going to be made up of sets compared to only 4% of villains for a significant nuts advantage as well. So basically you have the equity and the nuts advantage, this is much more significant than the default heuristic of check to the preflop aggressor. These advantages are so pronounced that when I remove your ability to donk from the sim villain just checks their entire range back so they actually aren't any more capped than they were before if they're playing properly against you. In terms of implementing the donking strategy here I gave an option to polarise whilst donking for 2/3 or to donk your range for 1/4 pot and the range bet actually captures more EV.

However, the above is all straight from theory land and probably does not represent how villain is actually playing so for exploitative reasons you may want to check here for exploitative reasons if you think villain will start putting too much money in with their overpairs/draws and will just leave themselves with an incredibly weak checking range that you can look to bully. Personally I think donking will exploit people harder here because they'll panic and most likely spew when they see something they're not used to and hopefully also get you tagged as a fish so that you can make more money later.

As played I think your reasons for overbetting the turn are somewhat correct in that you understand that villain is capped and want to punish a capped range but if you're only using the overbet on this turn it really neglects a lot of the middling value part of your range that wants to put some money in the pot but doesn't really want to try and play for stacks unless it improves, from a theory perspective overbetting comes about when we have a few hands that want to put a lot of money in and a lot of hands that want to put no money in, here we have part 1 but we don't have part 2 because the rest of our range is still so strong (although on this brick turn our equity does actually decrease slightly despite the check back from villain as a lot of our equity was in overcards with draws or backdoors which just missed). So I think you can use an overbet for some hands and this might be one of the bluffs that I would use but at the same time splitting your sizings here is going to be needlessly complicated when you're at a short enough SPR that you can just get the money in with a big river bet.

River I'm fine giving up here, really isn't a great run out and we'll have better bluffs but I also don't think it's the worst spot in the world to put someone to the test if say we think they don't have the discipline to check overpairs on the flop so we're really looking at a range that either binked trips or is looking at calling off the stack with a weak top pair or worse and a lot of weak tight villains will fold this kind of holding.

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