NL50Z monster draw OOP facing turn-raise
Posted by Tonyzer
Posted by
Tonyzer
posted in
Low Stakes
NL50Z monster draw OOP facing turn-raise
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50 (6 Players)
BN: $51.00
SB: $66.48
BB: $70.41
UTG: $50.25 (Hero)
MP: $182.41
CO: $36.72
SB: $66.48
BB: $70.41
UTG: $50.25 (Hero)
MP: $182.41
CO: $36.72
Preflop
($0.75)
Hero is UTG with
A
9
, , , ,
Flop
($4.25)
6
8
K
, , ,
Turn
($6.91)
6
8
K
7
, ,
River
($35.67)
6
8
K
7
2
, ,
Final Pot
MP wins $33.89
Rake is $1.78
Rake is $1.78
Loading 5 Comments...
OTT i would play x/c. Its a mw pot and you are oop. I dont think you have a lot FE after flop call, cause you block FD and all the sets are there, same as KJs, KQs or KTs. After turn raise I dont think you have the odds to call, moreover you are OOP and if you hit a spade or a straight you will be facing a chevk back most of the time.
You have 2,5:1 on the call
Assuming you are up against 88 you have 30% equity, let alone implied odds. I know you are OOP but meh
Regarding the turn check, I don't like it, this will cap our range and tbh, we don't fear any x/r at all since all the possible nutted hands should bloat the pot OTF. So this is a pretty comfortable bet given our strong drawing hand and the FE
Probably true in practise but I don't think villain should be checking back a set even if the board runs out pretty nasty just because it's so hard for hero to have a flush or straight. On a 5 or T you need to put villain on a 9 to think you're beat which is pretty hard to do, you've either got T9s which you definitely don't have all the combos of because it doesn't always bet flop and will sometimes jam turn facing a raise or check raise themselves or you've got a combo draw of which there are 3 (J9s, Q9s, A9s) which again don't all play this way. For the flush villain could reasonably give you combos of top pair + FD that plays this way but I think KJ is already starting to look too thin for value (although betting it is definitely fine, and same with KsTs and Ks9s, it's just getting into the land of merged value betting based on equity rather than SDV which people don't really do too much of imo) so again I don't think it's actually that scary considering all the flush draws that you fold out with this turn raise. Hero's range is primarily going to be composed of 1 pair hands with some sets thrown in and the very occasional flush or straight even on a card like Ts which looks very scary so I'd still be somewhat inclined to jam a set for value. Quick disclaimer in that I don't think hero should be as 1 pair heavy as many people are in this spot which a lot of what I'm saying is predicated on just I think there's not going to be very much flop or turn checking done by AA or AK here, against someone with a tighter flop range the set jam starts to look pretty thin on those run outs (although I'm still not entirely convinced that I want to check it back)
Also just from a raw equity standpoint, hero has something like 30% against a set and is calling $10 to win $35 so they're getting the price anyway even with no bluffs or implied odds.
You are right guys, my fault. It wass too early in the morning. We have got 29,5% against 88,66,T9s,KsQs,KsJs,KsTs and got some implied odds as well against weaker flushes.
Flop I think checking with your range against unknowns makes a lot of sense, especially 3 way. If one of them is a recreational player though I like betting more. Turn can go either way but betting seems better as you're pushing so much equity you want to get money in the pot and you're less likely to get raised given that villain just called flop and you block straights. Just calling the turn raise seems standard as you've got implied odds
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