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NL50z - huge overbet on river.

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

NL50z - huge overbet on river.

Blinds: $0.25/$0.50 (6 Players) BN: $95.00
SB: $61.43
BB: $50.00
UTG: $94.88 (Hero)
MP: $45.78
CO: $84.76
Preflop ($0.75) Hero is UTG with J J
Hero raises to $1.37, MP calls $1.37, 4 folds
Flop ($3.49) K T 8
Hero checks, MP checks
Turn ($3.49) K T 8 2
Hero bets $1.66, MP raises to $4.32, Hero calls $2.66
Against the small raise, i think i should continue as i have good equity and can improve to a strong flush
River ($12.13) K T 8 2 Q
Hero checks, MP bets $40.09 and is all in, Hero calls $40.09

No stats on villain, seemed random. Wasnt fully bought in

I tanked and made the call. I had what was effectively the 2nd nuts. Guess villain is pretty polar here he probably never has other than Ah or Jh9h (which i block) for value. I need 43% equity to call, so villain needs to bluff here more than that for the call to be profitable. If i didnt block the Jh9h which i could have here given the play, i would fold. But in my opinion, the fact that villain cannot have the actual nuts here makes the bluff a bit more likely. He could potentially have 9x9h and shove for value as well, but i think it is unlikely.

What do you guys think?

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