Nl50sh big spot :)
Posted by Jeff_
Posted by
Jeff_
posted in
Low Stakes
Nl50sh big spot :)
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50 (6 Players)
BN: $142.69
SB: $122.21
BB: $20.46
UTG: $36.15
MP: $54.90
CO: $59.38 (Hero)
SB: $122.21
BB: $20.46
UTG: $36.15
MP: $54.90
CO: $59.38 (Hero)
bu regular, sb pretty much unknown but regular as well 25/19 3 bet 7%, no sample for sq. bit aggro postflop
Preflop
($0.75)
Hero is CO with
A
J
, , , , , , ,
I decided to 4 bet because he made it quite big, and I am not that happy calling with regular behind
Flop
($27.25)
J
7
2
,
flop I think cbet would be fine, but I wanted to let him opportunity to bluff
Turn
($27.25)
J
7
2
6
,
snap
River
($54.25)
J
7
2
6
3
,
bad river but I still think we have call. he bets with QQ+ (~12-14 combo) and with couple flushes. (bb actually weak player, so he probably not squezing a lot Axs). As a bluff all QK,AQ,Ak
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jam turn. unless he is particulary tricky pre he doesn't have QQ-AA here. River is rlly bad since he has suited combo's that defend vs 4bet like AQs KQs , KJs and such. maybe even 89s. as played calling river since you underrepped your hand and his bluffing ratio might skyrocket becuz of this
you meant : cbet flop/jam turn?
sorry i accidentally flagged ur comment JEff , i thought it was the reply button :). And yes cbet flop jam turn.
Preflop still seems kind of counterintuitive, think our hand is too strong.
As played std I guess, but R is a sigh call, you're mostly going to lose.
first of all I don't think his sizing pre should give you any info...you are both deep and a smaller squeeze size would give both of you and BU great odds to call IP...I'm not so sure about folding/flatting/4b pre so I will talk about post flop play. I would xb OTF as well, to control the size of the pot and to induce bluffs. I dont think we can take AA and KK out of his range, specially if he has Kh or Ah, since he could think he can't get 3 streets of value on this somehow dry board and he won't be really concerned about a flush draw having a blocker. OTT it's an easy call so I wont say much about it...OTR it's tough because he has a lot of suited combos that got there. He is giving you 38% on your call, so for you to profitably bluff catch he needs to have a jamming river range composed by x bluff combos, where x > 38% of total jamming combos. Let's say he defended pre with AK (more suited combos, because I think he would 5b/gii most of his off suit combos, so let's say 3 suited combos and 4.5 off suit combos), AQ(7.5), KQs (4), AA (3 - he would sometimes 5b/gii too but lets stay conservative), KK(6 - the same as AA), QQ (half of his combos because I think he would 5b/gii with QQ most of the time, so 3 combos) and JJ(1). This gives us a total of 7.5 +7.5 + 4 + 3 + 6 + 3 + 1 = 32 combos. 0.38x32 = 12,16 --> 13 bluff combos to profit. His obvious value combos are AhQh, KhQh, AhKh, JhJd, AA(3), KK(6) and QQ(3) = 16 value combos. There are 16 combos left, and he has to bluff 12 of it for you to be break even. I don't think he jams the off suit combos of AQ and AK, so only this should be enough for you to fold river. If he bluffs all AQ and AK combos, then he bluffs 13 combos and you have a slightly +EV call...but I doubt this will be true for any standard villain. You can simulate the scenarios that you think are more suitable given villain's tendencies (you can take off some combos and add others and then calculate everything again). Overall I think you should fold river...am I'm not jamming turn since I don't think it accomplishes much
Youre isolating yourself vs stronger range by 4betting preflop. As played start by betting the flop, you should have SBs range crushed.Otr, dont think hell show up with enough bluffs so fold.
4betting doesn't make sense to me, I would just call his squeeze.
Just cbet, villain is probably getting it in with QQ+ most of the time. And once you cbet, jam the turn.
I think betting the flop is better than checking back. He should GII with QQ+, so you crush his range on this board. As played I would fold the river as he's almost never bluffing.
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