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NL50::AJo v huge air range

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

NL50::AJo v huge air range

BN: $50
SB: $19
BB: $52.25 (Hero)
CO: $54.05
Preflop ($0.75) (4 Players)
Hero was dealt A J
CO raises to $1.50, BN folds, SB folds, Hero calls $1
Flop ($3.25) 8 Q 8 (2 Players)
Hero checks, CO checks
Turn ($3.25) 8 Q 8 6 (2 Players)
Hero bets $2, CO raises to $6, Hero calls $4
River ($15.25) 8 Q 8 6 K (2 Players)
Hero checks, CO bets $11, Hero calls $11
Final Pot

reads on villain:

he almost certainly would not check behind the flop with a Q, 8, or FD.

if he only had a 6, theres no way he would be raising the turn.

he could have 66. thats a distinct possibility [3 comb.] .

he could have QQ. most of the time, thats probably betting the flop though. [1 comb.] .

i suppose 77,99-JJ are possible. frankly, though, i cant see villain raising with them all that often on the turn after having checked back the flop.

what draws could he have? he could have any Ax with the Ac [35 comb.] .

Kx with the Kc [KJ/KT/K9 = 9 comb.]

he doesnt have a Q, and i have the Jc.

he could have 97s [3 comb.] .

he could have total air [20% ~= 12 comb.] .

i am getting 11.25/4 ; i need ~25% equity to call. against that range, my hand has 46% eq.

river.

hell bet 66/QQ for sure [4 comb.] . he probably bets all his whiffed Ax hands too [35 comb.] i somehow doubts he bets all his Kx hands. ill say he bets half of them [~5 comb.] . 97s and the rest of his total air will bet again [15 comb.] .

26.25/11 means i need 29.5% equity to call; against that range, i have 27% equity.

soo .. given those assumptions, calling is slightly -EV.

BUT .. what if i make a big raise to say .. 35? it wouldnt make much sense, of course, unless i had QQ/66 myself, but then again, im not convinced that my opponent is capable of hand-reading.

if villain only calls with 66/QQ/Kx .. thats 9 comb. out of a total of 59 comb. hell fold 85% time.

EV = + (26.25)(0.85) - (35)(0.15) = + 15.75

hey, thats not bad.

but then ... if i was so convinced villain had air on the turn, why not 3b bluff him there? if villain shoves on me, im probably drawing dead anyway, so its not like giving up much equity.

EV = + (13.5)(0.85) - (16)(0.15) = + 9.075

conclusions? im not so sure .. in practice, i would probably rebluff turn next time, because i can rep so many more hands than my opponent here.

......

tl;dr -- you may ignore my rambling thoughts and simply comment on the hand.

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