NL50::AJo v huge air range
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Low Stakes
NL50::AJo v huge air range
SB: $19
BB: $52.25 (Hero)
CO: $54.05
CO raises to $1.50, BN folds, SB folds, Hero calls $1
reads on villain:
he almost certainly would not check behind the flop with a Q, 8, or FD.
if he only had a 6, theres no way he would be raising the turn.
he could have 66. thats a distinct possibility [3 comb.] .
he could have QQ. most of the time, thats probably betting the flop though. [1 comb.] .
i suppose 77,99-JJ are possible. frankly, though, i cant see villain raising with them all that often on the turn after having checked back the flop.
what draws could he have? he could have any Ax with the Ac [35 comb.] .
Kx with the Kc [KJ/KT/K9 = 9 comb.]
he doesnt have a Q, and i have the Jc.
he could have 97s [3 comb.] .
he could have total air [20% ~= 12 comb.] .
i am getting 11.25/4 ; i need ~25% equity to call. against that range, my hand has 46% eq.
river.
hell bet 66/QQ for sure [4 comb.] . he probably bets all his whiffed Ax hands too [35 comb.] i somehow doubts he bets all his Kx hands. ill say he bets half of them [~5 comb.] . 97s and the rest of his total air will bet again [15 comb.] .
26.25/11 means i need 29.5% equity to call; against that range, i have 27% equity.
soo .. given those assumptions, calling is slightly -EV.
BUT .. what if i make a big raise to say .. 35? it wouldnt make much sense, of course, unless i had QQ/66 myself, but then again, im not convinced that my opponent is capable of hand-reading.
if villain only calls with 66/QQ/Kx .. thats 9 comb. out of a total of 59 comb. hell fold 85% time.
EV = + (26.25)(0.85) - (35)(0.15) = + 15.75
hey, thats not bad.
but then ... if i was so convinced villain had air on the turn, why not 3b bluff him there? if villain shoves on me, im probably drawing dead anyway, so its not like giving up much equity.
EV = + (13.5)(0.85) - (16)(0.15) = + 9.075
conclusions? im not so sure .. in practice, i would probably rebluff turn next time, because i can rep so many more hands than my opponent here.
......
tl;dr -- you may ignore my rambling thoughts and simply comment on the hand.
Loading 3 Comments...
3b pre?
AJo probably goes best in our calling range vs most CO players.
OTT I think its worth considering a check. Theres only 1 better hand that would consider folding to you here so the bet is really only for protection/setting up the river barrel. However you can fill your range with so much air here that its best to keep hands like this that can win at showdown and maybe even call a turn bet in your checking range.
As played these spots are tricky. Your right that he s repping a very narrow value range. However when I see guys who are competent taking a line like this where their range is just so potentially full of bs and they are repping only the 6 value combos or whatever then they usually just have one of those 6 combos. The reason this gets tricky though is the fact that if I m folding this a lot then they can take advantage of that pretty easily. Its also difficult to evaluate how much dudes are taking advantage of spots like this because we are human.
In the end this is why I like checking hands like this. I just end thinking man why did I bet? I didnt need to and I have like 1000000000000000000 combos of better hands to bluff here with. :D
I agree with checking the turn, we can have hands like T9s, J9s etc that can bluff the turn so I like a c/c. Also if you bluff here with AJ (the strongest Ax in your range) then you never have this hand when the river is an A (his best barrel card).
As played I would fold to the turn raise I think, you have a lot of really strong hands in your range still (Qx and everything better) so he's only really folding out a bluff with his raise. This doesn't really make sense to me as when he checks back the flop it's fairly likely to be marginal showdown value, so he prob has to be turning a bluffcatcher into a bluff.
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