NL500 Live: river spot with AA
Posted by MrSneeze
Posted by
MrSneeze
posted in
Mid Stakes
NL500 Live: river spot with AA
*** MOD: Moved to Mid Stakes [2013-12-03 16:35 CET] ***
The hand takes place at my local casino. The table is very weak with most people entering with 40-50bb. Vilain is a relatively competent reg in live games, and plays very loose and aggro, exploiting the fishes very obvious lines. He's doing martial art and can handle himself well ; I had seen him make a hero fold against a very LAG player last time I had played with him ; he's likely to view me as a good reg as he saw my picture on the coverage of the France Poker Series MTT (1100€ buy-in), and he's playing such tourneys occasionnaly.
I was card dead for most of the night, so I did fold a lot, but showed a few bluffs in the rare pots I was involved. I assume he thinks I'm a serious, patient player, able to take good bluff opportunities. Vilain is definitely above average when it comes to hand reading. He stabs a lot and is not afraid to make small to medium bluff. He check-raised small with AQ on Qxxr 3way facing a small CB of mine.
The table is loose and straddling often. UTG straddles and I open for 30€ UTG+1 with AdAc ; vilain calls from the SB and we're 200bb deep. As for his preflop range, he will play a lot of suited and connected cards.
Flop comes 5s7c8c, I cbet for 50€, and vilain check-raise for 115€. I'm pretty confident he would be the kind of guy to XR hands as weak as 8x, 45, 56, 67, and maybe some flush draws I'm not sure. His small sizing does incitate me to call, because I assume he'd have incentives to XR bigger with a set or a straight.
Turn is Jh, and he bets 185€ into 305€. I call.
River is Td, and vilain thinks for like 15 seconds before checking. Pot is 575€ and effective stack sizes behind are around 500€.
Would you check behind or turn your hand into a bluff? Can we value bet?
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Is this a 9-handed table? Assuming Villian knows what he's doing, that will factor into his OOP calling range a lot versus a competent UTG+1 open.
Never played 2/5 live before because they don't have that around, but I assume everyone's just as terrible? I'd open bigger UTG, expecting to get loose calls IP anyway. So unless it's him and only shortstackers who are shovehappy, just charge them to play in position.
''I'm pretty confident he would be the kind of guy to XR hands as weak as 8x, 45, 56, 67, and maybe some flush draws I'm not sure. His small sizing does incitate me to call, because I assume he'd have incentives to XR bigger with a set or a straight.''
Assuming Villian is a decent player, he should not have 69/64 in SB calling range, and he definitely should not c/r a hand the hands you mentioned, except for bluffs with outs that are too weak to c/c. He'd isolate himself against better hands, and hands with tons of equity. And if he's at least a little balanced, he'd c/r the same amount with both sets, (combo)draws and bluffs. This is sizing is too small, as he's giving you fantastic odds, and even his nutty hands need protection on this board. Easy call.
Turn call looks good. You should only be beat by 87s and sets.
It's very unlikely he'd check-shove a straight here, thinking you have missed clubs. He's often given up, or wants to get to showdown with a pair.
You lose to JT (which is a perfectly reasonable hand to c/r the flop with btw), sets that want to get to showdown, and 87s. You beat all his pair + draw hands. The board is very connected, so almost always has at least a pair
Given that he's unlikely to call with worse, which would be AJcc which you block, and you have showdown value, you should check the river and probably be good >50% of the time.
And of course he could still call with better hands. If he's never checking a straight here, he'd never call if he folded a set. I assume you'd have to bet very big to get him to fold 2 pair+ here, and he likely knows you only have T9s, 89s, 99, A9s in your range to begin with.
Vilain can have 96s and 64s in his range, I know it for a fact. I play in France, games are way way crazier than in other parts of the world (wouldn't necessarily say they're easier ; they are soft, but can also be mentally exhausting). Anyway, vilain is a decent player for crazy live games. He has good live reads, but would be crushed online for sure. I still consider him decent ; at least he's agressive and smart, even though lacking technical fundamentals.
In theory it seems to be a good bluffing spot considering relative ranges right? Vilain is so unlikely to have better than 88. Bluffing this river with a psb left of 100bb+ is definitely a big bet for live games + I cannot get to this river with so many bluffs + I'm obviously able to value bet JT and better on this runout.
Still, in practice, not sure if ppl like to fold big hands :)
I think i'm taking the showdown here he can have too many hands that beat you and i think his calling range is only hands that beat you.
You hold Ac, correct? If so, it might not be horrible to 3bet flop as semi bluff and to pot control turn- hopefully get to showdown or jam if the club comes on turn. But with how the hand played, I just think we have to check behind this river as this run out is terrible. Villain put in plenty of value for us when our hand is good. You really can't be folding AA for less than 150bbs against decent villains
Intersting idea, I'll think that out.
check back river as you don't want to buff a guy who "He's doing martial art and can handle himself well"
raise more preflop
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