NL50 Zoom: Whats his river shove range?
Posted by friedpie
Posted by
friedpie
posted in
Low Stakes
NL50 Zoom: Whats his river shove range?
BB: $56.30
UTG: $50 (Hero)
HJ: $55.90
CO: $50
BN: $97
SB: $50
UTG: $50 (Hero)
HJ: $55.90
CO: $50
BN: $97
SB: $50
Villian: 22/17/6% 3bet.
Call Open CO: 8%
WTSD: 22%
W@SD: 40%
WWSF: 57%
only 209 hands.
Call Open CO: 8%
WTSD: 22%
W@SD: 40%
WWSF: 57%
only 209 hands.
Preflop
($0.75)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
A
Q
Hero raises to $1.50, HJ folds, CO calls $1.50, BN calls $1.50, SB folds, BB folds
Hero raises to $1.50, HJ folds, CO calls $1.50, BN calls $1.50, SB folds, BB folds
Flop
($5.25)
Q
5
9
(3 Players)
Hero bets $2.50,
CO calls $2.50,
BN folds
Turn
($10.25)
2
(2 Players)
Hero bets $6.50,
CO calls $6.50
River
($23.25)
A
(2 Players)
Hero bets $15.50,
CO raises to $39.50
Quite a strange and annoying spot.
This feels like a bluff all day - but when I think about it I don't think he is bluffing a 3rd barrel vs an UTG range.
I have no idea what his range is except maybe a split AQ.
I would expect him to raise sets by the turns, and I don't think hes capable of bluff shoving missed draws.
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Why don´t you think he´s "capable" of bluff shoving missed draws? Two things point out to me:
1) Your betsizes look like thin valuebets, which means you don´t really feel as if you have the best hand. It looks as if you´re kinda uncomfortable charging your opponents for the max because you´re afraid you´re running into the nuts - which means you don´t have the nuts yourself. That makes a bluff-shove from Villain way more likely.
2) You mentioned the W$WSF. If´s a whopping 57%. Even though it´s a small sample it´s a tendency - and a regular, tough and aggressive opponent might come close to 50%. That means, this guy doesn´t give up light. He´s not the guy to call twice with a draw and then give up if he missed his draw
Both points absolutely point into the direction of a bluff, imho. Your small bets and his high W$WSF. Add some non-zero% chance that he´s overplaying a hand like A5, A9 and you have a very easy call imho.
Counter-arguments obviously are "NL50" and "Zoom". I admit that it´s not very common to find a player on NL50, especially on Zoom who habitually shoves the river as a bluff - but "uncommon" is not "impossible". And stat-wise this guy just seems as if we might have found one. :)
Summary: I´m not dancing around the table when he shoves, but I´d never, ever fold my hand in this scenario.
Hmm that is very interesting.
The sample is small and he is a little tight pre so I am assuming his WWSF will be a lot lower and not to really judge it much, but your right it's still high.
The players in this pool aren't the best, does he really expect me to fold my continuing range here when he shoves? We don't have much of a history and it seems a little wild.
Also - What is the worst hand you would call with here?
I'm fistpumping here, can't imagine you losing to anything. 99/55 always will raise flop, and QQ likely as well, even tho you have a Q. Valuewise it looks like A5 or A2dd type hand, and bluff wise it can be plenty of stuff.
He probably had A9 or busted diamond draw.
55 and 99 certainly don't "always" raise the flop with another player left to act. However I'm fairly happy about calling because you lose to less than 6 combos so he only needs 2 combos of bluffs in his range to make a call profitable.
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