NL50 Zoom: Btn vS BB in 3bet pot: Exploitable fold on river?
Posted by Mad_DOG_33
Posted by Mad_DOG_33 posted in Low Stakes
NL50 Zoom: Btn vS BB in 3bet pot: Exploitable fold on river?
SB: $77.56
BB: $92.16 (Hero)
UTG: $106.37
MP: $52.08
CO: $51.85
BN wins $81.65
Rake is $2.00
I thought i played this hand correct but now im in doubt. I crunched the numbers in Equilab, and even if he always flats AK pre, which he doesnt always, then we have 29% Equity against his value range and need 20 to call. The turning point in the equity is if we dont believe he will bet all his QJ on turn, then we clearly need to fold as that is his only value hand we beat. But i think it is a reasonable assumption that he goes for value with Top 2 on turn here. Question is if he bets river for very thin value?
Equity Win TieMP2 29.03% 29.03% 0.00% { AdAh }
MP3 70.97% 70.97% 0.00% { JJ-TT, AKs, QJs, JTs, 98s, Kh9h, Qh9h, Kh8h, Kh7h, AKo, QJo }
I think he has a hard time finding bluffs here but he could have Kh8 Kh7 and even a few combos of that puts us with enough equity if we also remove Ako from his flatting range
http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: Th2hQcJhTd
Equity Win Tie
MP2 27.27% 27.27% 0.00% { AdAh }
MP3 72.73% 72.73% 0.00% { JJ-TT, AKs, K8s-K7s, JTs, 98s, Kh9h, Qh9h }
Thoughts? Maybe as balanced play we should call but we would make an explotable fold due to player pool tendencies?
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