NL50 TPTK facing river shove.
Posted by Rogbey
Posted by
Rogbey
posted in
Low Stakes
NL50 TPTK facing river shove.
CO: 50.88
BN: 89.25
SB: 60.49
BB: 50.75
UTG: 50.98
HJ: 61.55 (Hero)
BN: 89.25
SB: 60.49
BB: 50.75
UTG: 50.98
HJ: 61.55 (Hero)
Villain is a 24/21 over 850 hands. He is a standard TAG with WTSD 30%, W%SD 47. I think he views me as standard TAG also.
Preflop
(0.75)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
K
A
Hero raises to 1.50, CO raises to 4, BN folds, SB folds, UTG folds, Hero calls 2.50
Hero raises to 1.50, CO raises to 4, BN folds, SB folds, UTG folds, Hero calls 2.50
Villain 3b COvMP 12% and likes to 3b a lot IP but folds a lot to 4bs. My plan is to 4b bluff a lot with A2-A5 type hands. His range is quite wide here and I want to keep all his dominated Kx, Ax hands in.
Flop
(8.75)
J
4
K
(3 Players)
Hero checks,
CO bets 4.50,
Hero calls 4.50
Turn
(17.75)
J
4
K
3
(3 Players)
Hero checks,
CO bets 9,
Hero calls 9
River
(35.75)
J
4
K
3
9
(3 Players)
Hero checks,
CO bets 33.38, and is all in
I pretty much had no idea where I was here. I am not sure if he is capable of running a bluff on this board. What sort of stats should I be looking for to help make this decision in the future?
Loading 6 Comments...
If you want to use stats, you should look to 4-bet this hand pre-flop since 12% is quite high for COvMP.
On the turn, we could probably CRAI OTT since we have the Ah blocker.
On this river/run out, hard to see what bluffs villain could have. Most of his bluffs would contain the Ah which we block.
The crux of this hand is pre-flop though. Against a standard TAG it's really difficult to balance a range of just calling 3-bets. 4-bet/fold is the way to go.
I am not sure if 4bet folding here is going to be the most +EV, surely if we 4b we have to call off against his shove? We are 100bbs deep so if I 4b to 20bb and he shoves we only need 33% equity to call and if he is shoving QQ+, AK I think that is a call. I don't have pokerstove open but I am nearly sure we have the required equity.
Oh for sure we are felting with AKo here to a shove. I meant 4-bet/fold as in the overall strategy (eg. you will 4-bet some bluffs like A5s and fold those to a jam).
IDK, I think a call pre-flop is good for all the reasons you mentioned and playing 4b or fold OOP is kind of 2012-2013, I don't think it really applies much anymore (while its not bad advice, it is based on the assumption that it is easier to play OOP w/ the initiative and we shouldn't really be looking to make plays just because it makes things "easier", we want to maximize our EV at all times and I think having a call 3b range even OOP will help with this). And while it is hard to see what kind of bluffs villain can have here, he just might be thinking your range is weaker than it is. After all most people 4b AK, and as aggro as he seems he probably thinks you are always 4b AK. So I think a river call or fold is probably very close. I think villain will have AK, AA, some sets, and some KQ hands. As well as some bluffs AQ comes to mind and AT of clubs plus some random pairs that he is bluffing with because you probably can't have much better than KQ in his mind (KJ might raise the flop).
Still if you have a good read on him, you should have some idea what he barrels off with and it probably comes down to your read - Is he capable of going 3 w/ AQ or KQ? Could he turn TT w/ a heart into a bluff?
Yes maybe it would be best to play some AKs, KK+ this way and 4b AKo for value. Also, is it best to play KQs, QJs, TT-JJ this way also?
I would generally flat 3b's w/ 88-JJ maybe even 77, KQs QJs, maybe even JTs AJs but it all depends heavily on villain.
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