NL50 - Tough turn decision
Posted by Meliodas
Posted by
Meliodas
posted in
Low Stakes
NL50 - Tough turn decision
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50 (6 Players)
BN: $64.17
SB: $86.30 (Hero)
BB: $109.38
UTG: $35.06
MP: $60.88
CO: $77.13
SB: $86.30 (Hero)
BB: $109.38
UTG: $35.06
MP: $60.88
CO: $77.13
Preflop
($0.75)
Hero is SB with
Q
K
, , , ,
BN is a beautiful loose aggressive fish, BB the tighter of the nits.
Flop
($16.80)
Q
K
2
, ,
I would have liked to play the hand in two streets (targeting the fish), but stacks depths don't allow me.
Turn
($46.35)
Q
K
2
3
, ,
In the tank for the entire timebank, because of the call of both. I really have NO IDEA what the correct thing to do is.
River
($100.67)
Q
K
2
3
A
, ,
Loading 9 Comments...
Well BB calling range preflop is a lot of PP some suited broadways and likely SC(which -EV calls, but nits do play them)
Don't think he have 22 ever here, so main concern is AKcJT KK-QQ is tiny bit of his range. As far for bluffs only T9dd I suppose. Even T9dd I belive is close because another player have to act.
On the river good fold
I think we can just jam turn, there’s 46 in pot and we have around 71 behind if my math is correct. Also we can bet large on flop so our turn jam doesn’t look like as big of an over bet. You’re against a nit with a semi strong range and a fish who I assume calls too much. A bigger flop bet size seems best. Also there’s a boatload of equity that we are happy with denying on turn. AJdd ATdd JTdd, T9dd and AK, also if he’s a real nit he might not always 4b AA, many nit don’t have a 4betting range because they know that they won’t generate much value because everyone always folds to their cold 4bets. They compensate for this by cold calling 3bets with big pairs. Yes when we jam we could lose but I think the positives of jamming outweigh the negatives.
So follow my intuition to play this hand in two streets, even if it means an overbet OTT. Honestly, I can play this situation that way but having top 2P seems bad for that sizing here, or at least this is my big question in the tank (and I'm still looking for an answer). Reason why I didn't use a big flop size too (I would have had to overbet anyway).
Agree on playing two streets. In general, it feels like a great board for a big sizing, especially 3-way. So something like $12-16 wouldn't look weird imo.
BB the tighter of the nits - do we have stats here?
If we think the loose aggressive fish will bet here I don't mind going for a check/jam.
As played, I really don't think the vast majority of players at 50nl will pull off a bluff here. AJdd, ATdd and 9Tdd I don't think overcall, but you are deep so he may do at some frequency. JT would kind of make sense. I wouldn't be surprised to see him play AK,KK,QQ this way either, overcalling to keep the fish in the pot and then jamming to get called by your KQ/AQ.
I think the overall population at 50nl lack river bluffs in 3bet pots let alone deep so I'd be happy to sigh and fold.
Stats don't say much more than that. Check / jam leads to the same problem from my point of view, because the problem is the BB and he acts after us in any case with his damned range :D , so I'm still confused.
Check/jamming is fine I think, he still has AK, AQ which will be put in tough spots.
Didn't realise you only had 44 left into the pot, I thought you were both $100 deep. Don't think you can fold, as much as it sucks.
You have 44 on the river, pot is 100, never folding here. Jamming is better than check calling, as you will get called by Ax sometimes that will check back. Most importantly, bet huge/overbet on the turn, everyone has capped range lol.
What exactly are we putting him on here? 22/KK/QQ is 5 combos. If he has QQ/KK in his range, then he will certainly have AA/AK here also. Not to mention AJdd/ATdd/JTdd/JTs. I think flop size is ok, can be bigger. Just jam turn. Yeah, it's overbet, but guys will have at least 5 "value" calls here that we beat (AA/AK) and completely denying equity to any OESD and FD is a good thing IMO.
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