nl50 TJs 3b pot oop
Posted by Numbers
Posted by
Numbers
posted in
Low Stakes
nl50 TJs 3b pot oop
3bet pre because BB was capable of sqzing. (15% in this spot)
Co is nitty reg 21/16 with 19% CO open and 62% Fold vs 3bets.
Postflop not sure about my line.
When is it better to x/c this hand, when to cbet ?
As played x/c turn i think is fine, not sure about rvr.
Thoughts ?
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I had a huge comment and then I pressed back on my browser. Erghhh
0.19*0.62=0.06 Assuming he slowplays QQ+ maybe 1/3 of the time and 4b AK+ 100%. I put this in equilab and got JJ-88, AhAs, AhAc, KhKs, KhKc, QhQs, QhQc, AQs-ATs, KQs, JTs, T9s, AQo. Assuming he never raises flop (not really true but for arguments sake) he continues with all pairs, flush draws and AQ with A diamonds. He basically calls with his whole range on the flop. OTT I expect most villains to check back 88 and 99 so if we take those out of his range. OTR I expect JTs and T9s to check back as well so we can take those out of his range. So for betting the river he has a polarized range of TT, JJ plus 1/3 of QQ+ combos for value and bluffs he has KQs ATs-AQs. Against your hand OTR you have 45% equity when you need 28.75/(28.75+43) = 0.4.
Now assuming villain never 4b and has all overpairs and AK+ in his range preflop. Villian is nitty and might just fold AK we get 28% equity on the river.
My assumptions are likely wrong but it seems like a close call if he 4b’s a reasonable range and if he flats all premiums then you are crushed.
If that`s a larger sample his flatting range vs 3b looks like QQ-88,AdAh,AdAc,KdKh,KdKc,ATs+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,AQo+ more less.
OTF --> He pretty much only continues with 88-AA, JTs-ATs, AdQx, AdKx, QJdd-AJdd,KQdd,AQdd,AKdd.
OTT --> When he bets we can safely exclude all AdXd combos, so that leaves him with TT-AA,JTss-ATss, QJdd-AJdd,KQdd,AQdd,AKdd.
OTR --> I`m quite sure he would only value bet ATs and xb Jts-Kts, so that leaves him with 14 value combos --> ATs, TT-AA, and only 5 air combos --> AdKd,AdQd,KdQd,KdJd,QdJd.
You need around 29% to make the call, and vs that range you have around 27%.
Even if we took out 4 combos of KK-AA, we still need him to bluff 80% of his air combos 100% to make the call profitable, which considering he`s a nit is very unlikely.
Edit : I forgot backdoor flush draws, so AQcc,AKcc,AJcc,QJcc,KJcc,KQcc (not sure if he floats all of them) are a part of his range as well, so kinda closer then i thought.
I dont expect him to have KK, AA as he would 4bet pre (at least some % of the time). Also, not sure about him vbetting AT OTR. Im not saying its a bad play but I dont most vilain would be scared of overpair and would cb river with AT.
That`s why i gave him 1/3 of those combos.
@Brandon: It's dangerous to take a ftcb stat which is almost certainly different depending on which board or preflop situation got him to the point where he's facing a cbet and assume that it represents exactly how he plays in this scenario.
Numbers: I dunno. I think this is quite a good bluffcatcher since we block JJ and TT but don't block any draws which missed so I would press call I guess. I would expect him to have continued with good bdfds OTF sometimes as well as the other more obvious draws which missed.
Thx do you guys agree with the cbet or would you go for x/c, when is either better ?
Ofc both is fine. Personally, I would like a x/c here a bit more, because we do not block many draw (= bluffing) combos, so we have a good hand to x/c three streets.
thats a good point, but at the same time, we need protection against all KQ, AJ, KJ type hand. That's an arguments for cbetting. I dont know at 50nl, but at lower stakes, I'd cbet because people call too much.
I agree with the river call. Vilain can only have few value combos (TT, JJ and QQ = 10 combos), but can also have some missed draw (AKss, AQss, AJss, KQss, KJss, QJss and some AdXx). He doesnt have to bluff all those to make a call profitable for the hero.
Co is nitty reg 21/16 with 19% CO open and 62% Fold vs 3bets.
Then I put him mostly on JJ, TT, QQ. If he has a fd, he probably check turn or bet bigger OTT.
This line looks like overpairs and set.
would you call JJ in vilain's shoes OTF ? or raise it ? I was wondering if we can remove some JJ or QQ combo because he could raise them OTF, but I dont think there is much value in doing it. I mean, we arent calling with worse than JJ to a flop raise..
I wouldn't 4bet with JJ preflop.
I'd start by checking flop, we don't really have much of a vbet even on this board.
River is close-ish, it's probably the best Tx hand for bluff-catching but at the same time I'm not sure people are really bluffing that often when they're repping pretty narrow and everything whiffed.
The nit in me says fold river :)). I don't know if call /fold is better on the river... depends a lot on what villain thinks about your range as well. Does he expect you to fold a lot on river, if so you can make the call but otherwise I do believe folding is fine, he probably ain't bluffing that much on river to be worth a call.
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