NL50 strategy vs good reg

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NL50 strategy vs good reg

Blinds: $0.25/$0.50 (6 Players) BN: $53.00
SB: $104.12 (Hero)
BB: $67.42
UTG: $50.75
MP: $187.84
CO: $48.94
villain is 24/20/4 over 3k hands. wtsd 30% (a bit on a high side), wsd 50%, wwsf 50%, rfi utg 20%, fold to flop cbet 5/7, flop to turn 2bet 3/3. cbet F/t/r 56/50/42.

We had a hand yesterday that he played really, really well and induced a terribly spew from me, which he proceeded to snapcall fairly light. I have him noted as one of the best regs at the limit.
Preflop ($0.75) Hero is SB with J J
UTG raises to $1.50, 3 folds, Hero calls $1.25, BB folds
Smth like 66-QQ, KQ, AQ+, ATs+?
Flop ($3.50) 9 J 7
Hero checks, UTG bets $2.25, Hero calls $2.25
The flop hits me really hard and I have a lot of options how to play my ranges. Given that he opens fairly wide utg and its almost impossible for me to completely whiff this board I think that my range in general is somewhat stronger. We share the valuecombos (all except for QT, KK, AA I guess), but he has way more air in his range.

1) I could just xC everything I continue with, which could be smth like: sets, KQ, AdXx, FDs, 88, TT, QQ and donkbet some stuff ott?

2) xR sets+ overs with bdfd and xC the rest I wanna continue with (FDs, AJ, QQ, TT..I can perhaps go xC, xC, x/jam with those hands on some runout?). Maybe I should xR sets and FDs and just muck weaker hands, like AdKx, but I feel like that strategy would be wasting my range advantage on this board.

3) I think that technically I have initiative on this board, since my range is stronger, so I could lead sets+ overs+bdfd and xC the same range as in 2? Or even just lead everything?


I think I actually like donkbetting my whole continuing range otf. I dont like the line I took, since I think that he calls down with hands he'd bet anyway, I dont get anything worthwhile to fold, I dont get paid off too well when I hit, I dont force him to make a mistake too significant.
Turn ($8.00) 9 J 7 2
Hero bets $5.00, UTG calls $5.00
Maybe its worth considering donkbetting a really wide range ott and just overbet jamming all rivers?
River ($18.00) 9 J 7 2 5
Hero bets $13.00, UTG calls $13.00
Basically the weaker my range is, the more I wanna bet, right? At the time I thought that my range is somewhat valueheavy, since I wouldnt actually in play donkbet KQo combos ott, so I went for a smaller sizing.

Obviously the goal is to not find some perfect gto solution. Just a rough idea which course of action makes the most sense Is enough I think.

Is any of the proposed strategies vastly superiour/inferior? What line would you guys take with this hand?

Thanks:)

9 Comments

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MajorCrimes 10 years, 1 month ago

Not sure that 66 and ATs belong in a flatting range if hes really good and we'll be OOP, but could just be being a nit.

With his stats, it seems like we could be x/c a pretty normalish range flop and turn and then expect his river bets to be slightly unbalanced toward value, at least as a general plan.

In theory, I don't think he's likely to be going overboard cbetting this board, so donking with your continuing range seems decent to me...

GanjaFarmer 10 years, 1 month ago

With the reads and dynamics you gave I would try to build a check/calling and check/raising that both include draws and 2pair/sets. Usually I would just go for a checkraise here with a set repping sets and draws, but against an aggressive player and good hand reader it can be very useful to have a hand as strong as a set because once you just call that flop he will consider your range capped and put a lot of pressure on you.

I dont like the idea of donking our strong hands as this is something he can very easily pick up on, a simple note such as "donk set on drawy board" will remind him to make good laydowns without investing another cent and how weak your check/calling range from now on is. The latter one is true for the idea of checkraising as well, but Id go for something like checkraise the strong hands 75% of the time and checkraise a lot less (but not 0) with draws. As you sid his cbetting range will be really strong and therefore semibluffing goes down a lot in value while your implied odds increase.

As you can see m suggesting un unbalanced range that still keeps villain guessing, so a GTO player would completely disagree with me. Also I remember FoxwoodsFiend saying in a video that he would never checkraise 2pair or better in this spot, but unfortunately I cant remember all the reasons (it was higher stakes though, so the reason I mentioned that villain will incorrectly assign you a capped range is even more important).

I dont understand your reason for donking the turn though, it negates all the advantages of not having checkraised the flop.

Gay Theory 10 years, 1 month ago

i guesss u want to get val from worse hands till the board gets ugly so i d like x/r F
u can be happy that u got the blankiest runnouts ever
asplayed i guess donking turn makes sense if he gonna xbeh a lot of his draws and realise equity.. but often he might barell them and u can just x/r T if u didnt F

sweet16 10 years, 1 month ago

im x/c flop turn and x/r river. I think you lose a lot of value by taking this line and you got so many like bluffcatchers that want to showdown so not sure leading this big ott makes sense (?)

MajorCrimes 10 years, 1 month ago

Yeah that seems valid at first, but by the time he has bet flop and turn and we block so much of his value range, I think he's pretty polarized and therefore its not like he has a ton of calling hands that enjoy checking back imo

sweet16 10 years, 1 month ago

Why would he check back a ton? We block his top pairs which are his more likely hands to check back OTR. He's more weighted to overpairs, draws and sets. According to his cbet stats it's seems not like he will cbet like 9x, TT-type of hands.

So I think wil kill a lot of action from hands that could continue to barell when we lead on the turn (especially this big). I managed to find 22 combos that are never going to give us more than 3 bets post flop once we take this line but could very well give us 4 if we decide to check/raise turn or river: QQ (6) , KK (6), AA (6) , AJ (4).. KJ seems kinda close as well so you may add it if you want to. Leading makes more sense to me if we had like 77/99 cuz it makes him more weighted towards top pairs/bluff catchers.

AlwaysAK 10 years, 1 month ago

3bet pre. you are talking about balance when ur preflopgamle is terribly unbalanced cuz why wouldn't you want to 3bet JJ vs his 20/ opening range? doesn't make sense at all.

Consider donking medium strength hands / draw , xr a few 2 pairs and draws. try to count all the combo's and add frequencies. consider using flopzilla which is very usefull for these types of questions

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