NL50 SH Anon JJ 3rd set in 3b Pot fml
Posted by Majestic
Posted by
Majestic
posted in
Low Stakes
NL50 SH Anon JJ 3rd set in 3b Pot fml
None: Jon Doe: 0
Edit: Sry seems I fked up trying to post the HH. Or is it because of Prima network HH. Any quick help pls? In the meantime, here is the hand http://weaktight.com/6250649
Villain - no reads, seems reg based on stacksize, OR sizing
Pre - 3b JJ 4 thin value/ initiative/ fold eq
Flop - bet 4 value vs TT+/AhQh/AhKh/AhQo; I think he sometimes (rarely) has AA/KK with Ah, Kh (w/o hearts I think he is raising)
Turn - Sucks, QQ is what I most likely put him on when he calls flop, but I still get value from most of his other hands
River - I think only hand I get value from is AQ, so I check. When he bets - I don't really see myself beating his betting range, I only beat AhQh/AhQo that could play like this. I need 26% equity to make the call.
Thinking back, based on the range I gave him, I think I should call.
Board: Jh9h4sQcAc
Equity Win Tie
MP2 62.50% 62.50% 0.00% { QQ, AdAh, AhAs, AhQh, AhQd, AhQs }
MP3 37.50% 37.50% 0.00% { JJ }
What would you do?
Loading 3 Comments...
Hello,
I think you should call. The only hand that beats you is QQ. AA is unlikely because he would have 4b preflop, KTs and T8s are also unlikely. I also think you should have very good reads to make that fold and u said you don't have hands on him.
You have made [inaccurate] assumptions:
1) His preflop 3b calling range needs to be re-evaluated: QQ-77 and some big broadway suited. which means he can have a lower set of nines on the flop.
2) i don't think he is auto-raising his flush draws or sets OTF, he has position on you and can continue by calling very easily.
3) You have under-represented your hand by not firing the river.
4) you don't give him ANY credit for bluff betting the river once you 3bet and go bet-bet-check?
5) depending on how you construct your 3bet range and what villain perceives your hand to be when you take this line it is conceivable he could value bet AhKh here, even AhTh if he thinks you have exactly KK that now hates the Ace river.
having said all this, yes he can very well have QQ here. And general population tendencies, villain isn't value betting any worse than AQ here. And most of his hands should have showdown so he has to be capable of realizing plenty of his one pair hands here are no good once you check.
Given all this JJ is still too strong here to consider folding.
Really appreciate your input guys,
I agree that it was a bad fold, in retrospect.
@Daz - thanks for the detailed answer
4) I see him floating very rarely, given positions, maybe only AhKh, but yeah otherwise I think he has little bluffs in his range.
Also, he might have a looser calling 3b range, but do you think he would go as low as AhTh? I mean he is often dominated by my AK, AQ.
I agree with you on the other points
I remember what was my (flawed) thought process in the hand. All I could think of when Q hit turn was 'fck he has QQ!!!', so my thought process all came from my 'certainty that he had QQ' which was definitely not profitable.
Thanks!
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