NL50 RUSH, Top Set on River. Check/Raise or Check/Call?
Posted by Learn2FoldEm
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Learn2FoldEm
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Low Stakes
NL50 RUSH, Top Set on River. Check/Raise or Check/Call?
BN: $50
SB: $68.55
BB: $52.70
UTG: $61.75 (Hero)
HJ: $101.40
CO: $73.20
SB: $68.55
BB: $52.70
UTG: $61.75 (Hero)
HJ: $101.40
CO: $73.20
Preflop
($0.75)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
K
K
Hero raises to $1.50, HJ folds, CO calls $1.50, BN folds, SB folds, BB folds
Hero raises to $1.50, HJ folds, CO calls $1.50, BN folds, SB folds, BB folds
Flop
($3.75)
9
6
Q
(2 Players)
Hero checks,
CO checks
Turn
($3.75)
7
(2 Players)
Hero bets $1.85,
CO raises to $7,
Hero calls $5.15
River
($17.75)
K
(2 Players)
Hero checks,
CO bets $14.20
On the flop I am going for a check-raise as I think there is a lot of hands I can gain value from which wouldn't raise when bet into such as AQ/KQ/QJ/JT/78s/etc whereas the only hands I am behind are 99/66 rly. This also protects my check/fold range.
When he raises turn I think he represents 77/76s/79s/T8s for value and a whole array of bluffs such as {hh, Tx, 8x} so I opt to call.
On the river I hit top set which puts me behind only T8/JT of which I don't think either would take this line although it is not completely inconceivable. I think he would bet T8/JT on flop and it is more likely he had some kind of SD value with the check behind so 76/79/77 would be more consistent. When he near pots river I think we can almost discount 76/79 because the K now completes JT and puts him behind KQ.
Given my analysis, I think he is completely polarised between air such as hh and 77 or a weirdly played T8/JT. Given this range I'm not sure how profitable it is to check/jam given how strong we look and his calling range of {77,JT,T8} and the odd {79,76,KQ} but would say the latter is quite unlikely.
What do you guys think? Am I missing value with a check/call?
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