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NL50 - River valuebet vs fish?

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NL50 - River valuebet vs fish?

IPoker, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players

Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.



SB: $56.96 (113.9 bb)

BB: $25.23 (50.5 bb)

MP: $62.19 (124.4 bb)

Hero (CO): $50 (100 bb)

BTN: $45.95 (91.9 bb)



Preflop: Hero is CO with T 7

MP folds, Hero raises to $1, 2 folds, BB raises to $2.50, Hero calls $1.50



Flop: ($5.25) T T 5 (2 players)

BB bets $2.62, Hero calls $2.62



Turn: ($10.49) K (2 players)

BB bets $5.24, Hero calls $5.24



River: ($20.97) 3 (2 players)

BB checks, Hero checks



Results: $20.97 pot ($1.04 rake)

Final Board: T T 5 K 3

BB showed K Q and lost (-$10.36 net)

Hero mucked T 7 and won $19.93 ($9.57 net)


Villain is a 51/12 (with overall 3% 3b) recreational player over just 80 hands.

I think you can find reasons to raise the flop and turn, but in the spot I choosed not to, let Villain to bluff on future streets and keep his range "wide". I think his pf 3b range will be big broadway cards, big pairs, and some nice suited connectors. So when he barrels on the turn, he can have TPGK/TPTK, overpair, FD's. And he can have some completed flushes. I'm not sure that he will bet river with a hand like KQo with a spade. Now I think it's more likely.
Anyway... do you vbet here on the river?

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