NL50 - river sizing with bluf
Posted by luba
Posted by
luba
posted in
Low Stakes
NL50 - river sizing with bluf
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50 (6 Players)
BN: $55.40
SB: $50.25
BB: $55.78
UTG: $50.00
MP: $54.35
CO: $60.56 (Hero)
SB: $50.25
BB: $55.78
UTG: $50.00
MP: $54.35
CO: $60.56 (Hero)
Preflop
($0.75)
Hero is CO with
8
7
, , ,
Flop
($3.15)
Q
5
3
,
Turn
($6.43)
Q
5
3
A
,
River
($6.43)
Q
5
3
A
2
Villains range OTR contains of FD's, Qx combinations, 5x and pocket pairs. I do bet for value OTR Qx combinations and probably don't use big sizing (around 70%). But i do not expect villain to fold here a lot OTR (with his showdown value hands). Which sizing would you recommend?
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Why dont u barrel one of the best card that can come on the turn?
Yeah, i probably should have bet OTT and bluf non spade or Q river.
Yep. Good oportunity to barell OTT
Turn barrel looks pretty bad to me, I would just XF it OTF. Value betting Qx OTR also looks loose to me, he will still have lots of Ax checked OTT.
Ace OTT is better card for me and should have good fold equity here. Also, when river is the blank, it should be good spot to triple barrel. He should not have AQ, QQ, etc. and his range is quite Qx and FD heavy and i do not block any draw + i am on the bottom of my range.
I have to add, that turn barrel is exploitable play and when barreling hands like 87s i am definitely gonna overbarrel this spot. But vs players i do not play a lot against, it is probably okay, because they will never find out. Vs regs i have some play history with, XF OTT is the play i think. So, shouldn't overuse it.
I think you should barrel on the turn, as it was suggested, since ace is one of the best cards to do that. As played, on the river I think I would go with something along 40-55%. This kind of sizing will look like an Qx to the villain so he might fold pocket 66-TT.
If I were button, I would have >10 Ax combo's OTR as played whenever Hero isn't barrelling all his Ax OTT.
I do think it is a Highly profitable riverbluf vs most players. I wouldnt bluf turn often at all with this combo. What blufs remain for you OTR if you bluf hands like this OTT? Profitability of bet/check/bet should at least be equal to the bet/bet/? blufs.
Do you have a check-folding range on this flop? For me personally this combo would fit right into it.
Good spot to check most of your range imo.
I think that most people cbet this spot too often.
CO opening range: AA-22,AKo-A9o,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,AKs-A2s,KQs-K6s,QJs-Q8s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T7s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s,54s
BTN calling range: QQ-55,AQo,AQs-ATs,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs
And fwiw, I don't believe you should take the line you chose in this spot but I think that once you get to the river like this you should try to bluff. And this is where the problem arises with cbetting too often you will get to the river with a range that is very saturated with bluffs, against a villain with many bluff-catchers.
You make a fair point in regard to not over cbet this flop. Yet the results of your simulations are kinda skewed. QQ and AQs are 3betted way, way more often than flatted and even AQo and KQs will be 3betted by most players a fair amount of the time. And just in general the flatting range seems extremely conservative to me, as long the blinds arent crazy squeezers.
Still, button most likely has a (slight) range advantage + position on this board, so your conclusion seems valid to me.
OTF it seems to me like an effective addition to the cbet range. This is one of the few cards that improve equity in the 4-9 region. For board coverage it seems to me a Nice one to include, especially given the extra (barrel) equity because of the BDFD.
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