NL50 River bluffcatch reasoning check
Posted by pinky1991
Posted by pinky1991 posted in Low Stakes
NL50 River bluffcatch reasoning check
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50 (5 Players)
BB: $102.57
UTG: $50.00
CO: $106.43 (Hero)
BN: $82.29
SB: $62.93
UTG: $50.00
CO: $106.43 (Hero)
BN: $82.29
SB: $62.93
Have villain marked down as a weaker reg. 17/15 3bet of 3.2 over 160 hands 1/13 on the button.
Preflop
($0.75)
Hero is CO with
K
K
, , , , ,
Initial raiser was a weaker player and both blinds are solid regs with relatively high squeeze %s, that was the reason for my initial flat pre. I did not 4bet this players squeeze as I was happy to see the flop ahead of his range and with stack sizes/his nitty 3bet if I 4bet I'd likely have to fold because I don't see him shipping with worse than KK pre. As is I feel his range is likely QQ or JJ+ with AK and possibly a few other bluffs.
Flop
($13.20)
J
3
7
, ,
I can't see much value in raising as I will just build a pot when I'm losing and fold out worse.
Turn
($27.20)
J
3
7
9
,
When he checks back here I feel I am good 100% of the time. I think JJ and AA will continue to bet given the possible draws on board. Even my 88 & TT hands have picked up an additional 4 4 outs.
River
($27.20)
J
3
7
9
5
, ,
Given the nitty 3bet stat I feel we can rule out 55, 99, 77, 33 here. Only value hand that makes sense to me is JJ and I am not even sure he would 3bet JJ preflop. If villain had AA I think he would bet turn, if he does check back turn with AA for pot control why would he then turn around and shove the river over my bet? Getting roughly 2/1 after leading the river as well so only have to be right 1/3 to profitably call. Thoughts?
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