NL50: QTo river decision
Posted by Bronson
Posted by
Bronson
posted in
Low Stakes
NL50: QTo river decision
HJ: $27.47
CO: $60.32 (Hero)
BN: $55.45
SB: $50
BB: $50
UTG: $4.45
CO: $60.32 (Hero)
BN: $55.45
SB: $50
BB: $50
UTG: $4.45
Preflop
($0.75)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
Q
T
UTG folds, HJ calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2.25, BN folds, SB folds, BB folds, HJ calls $1.75
UTG folds, HJ calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2.25, BN folds, SB folds, BB folds, HJ calls $1.75
Flop
($5.25)
Q
8
J
(2 Players)
HJ checks,
Hero bets $3.35,
HJ calls $3.35
Turn
($11.95)
K
(2 Players)
HJ checks,
Hero checks
River
($11.95)
J
(2 Players)
HJ bets $7
78/6 (70 hands), limp-call 90%(sample 21); f2cb 48%, agg% f/t/r: 27/41/41, bet river 53%
river pot odds 27%
i always tank in these spots against fish and don't really like folding
does he have enough 9x, Tx, poket 55 etc to make the call ok?
here i folded cause he bet biggish, like a J or a K, but what if he bet 1/2pot ... ?
thanks
Loading 4 Comments...
Good fold. I would bet turn small for value & protection vs tt/99/jx/8x. 78/6 players have a wide range.
A half pot bet on the turn will probably get you value from AJ/JT/98. Fold to a CR as it's KJ or AT a lot.
OTR I think folding is fine. Q9 is not betting $7 into $12 here and it's unlikely he's turning TT/99 into a bluff. Most likely he has a hand like KJ/JT/AT and he wants to get value from a K or Q.
about the turn bet:
we have beat: AJ 12 comb, JT 9 comb, 89 12 comb (is he really calling 89?) total of 33 comb
have us beat: AQ 8 comb, AT 12 comb, KT 9 comb, KJ 9 comb, KQ 6 comb, K9 12 comb, total of 54 comb without taking into account he might sometimes slowplay 88 on T9 and just ck/c flop (he mi
also when he ck/r turn with 2pair it sucks cause we have good eq with the OESD and probably he will call a river bet some percentage of the time ( he might improve to 2pair AQ etc)
am i missing something ? should we really bet the turn ?
IN GENERAL: okay so this is a fairly common spot, so it would be good to look over this in more detail. I feel we should be isolating all our broadway {AT+ KT+ QT+ JT, suited and offsuit variants} in position versus a weaker players limp, but of course we will run into some problems postflop - some of villain's limping range IS ahead of us but we want to use position/aggression effectively to make it profitable for us.
REGARDING THE HAND: already our cbet is somewhat merged but mostly for value, we are ahead most of the time and i like cbetting versus this villain type as they will peel the flop very wide: any pair, any gutshot, pair+gut shot they won't be thinking about the fact that some of their outs are heavily discounted (and will get to them into trouble on later streets).
the two worst cards for us are the King and the Jack and they conveniently peel off on the turn and the river (just as we like it), as previous posts have pointed this out already the King completes quite a few of the combos villain is peeling the flop with. Mostly Kx with a gutshot or worse pair that now improved to two pair. it seems bad to put more money into the pot when the one card that completes most of villain's calling range pops off OTT
the board remains rainbow so there aren't even flush draws that villain could call with.
if we bet the turn small we don't really accomplish anything since aren't we giving him odds to improve then?
if we bet the turn wouldn't we want to make it big and use our hand to block some straights/sets and have him fold a weak two pair by the river with a third barrel? BUT i wouldn't be trying to bluff this player. maybe if he was a nit i would try this
i don't think its the end of the world to check this back and simply showdown.
Once villain leads the river, even though we showed weakness i'm still folding
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