NL50, QQ blockers to straight
Posted by ICheatSoWhat
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ICheatSoWhat
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NL50, QQ blockers to straight
2nd hand of the session, c/o raises, me in sb 3 bets with QQ c/o calls pot is 10.50
flop comes AKTrr
check, check
turn 8s, check check
river 9h, check and villain overbets to $45. pot is $55. what do?
I thought about calling in this situation as I thought that I had the Queens blocker to the QJ, villain would be more likely to 4 bet with KK or AA or AK, and I had blockers to the AQ. Plus I think one pair hands nor sets would overbet this river.
Also my perceived range is weak and I have no history with him to show I am a donk.
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River is a blank for your range, you will probably never beat a set at this point, so he can overbet with sets. Blockers to QJs doesn't matter in this situation because I think players at nl50 won't play like this as a bluff, so blocking value combos doesn't make a difference.
His most likely hand is 99 in my opinion.. I would expect him to bet QJs not later than OTT, but maybe he'll have that once in a while, anyways I'd prefer something like A9s to call rather than a QQ if I ever considered calling.
I want to figure out a likely range for this individual and also what the worst hand you would have to call here would be.
I also thought since river is a blank and he overbets that amount after three checks, he can't possibly expect me to have a strong hand that would be able to call there. I thought a value bet would be about normal pot size, 2/3 pot sized bet
It is very hard to come up with a likely range in a rare spot like this. I still think it is a lot more likely for him to have 76s, 99 than QJs(or any bluffs).
I wrote I would rather consider calling with A9s but we'll never ch that 3times. So basically probably QQ, and A7s are our best bluffcatchers in this spot.
Against this sizing we can fold 82% of the 1pair+ part of our range, so we would probably need to call with something like half our QQ, A7s combos.
We are getting 1.22:1 PO which means he needs to bluff here 45% of the times for our bluffcatchers to be breakeven.
In this spot in villains shoes I would choose some combo of my lower PPs.. probably those have the least SDV in our range, and we don't have hands to bluff that blocks his bluffcatchers.
I mean this is true, but then he shouldn't bluff this amount.. he can make you fold almost all your range with a smaller sizing as well. He might just thought you will fold here almost always to any larger sizing so he decided to make it as big as possible with a nutty hand hoping you rivered something or level yourself into calling.
I find it highly unlikely that an unknown nl50 reg will be bluffing here anywhere close to 45% of the times here, but since this is a very rare spot I might be wrong about this.
Are you asking to consider calling or raising?
calling
dont level at this limit
he knows that he doesnt rep anything and most likely hopes that you'll level yourself. He'd also likely start bluffing sooner if he were to try to buy the pot
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