NL50 overpair v. extremely strong line
Posted by anatta
Posted by
anatta
posted in
Low Stakes
NL50 overpair v. extremely strong line
BN: $55.49 (Hero)
SB: $66.25
BB: $29.26
UTG: $107.31
HJ: $50
CO: $50.08
SB: $66.25
BB: $29.26
UTG: $107.31
HJ: $50
CO: $50.08
villain is 35/6/1 over 600 hands. hes 3b 0pct pf and his fts is 65pct. check-raising 2pct of flops, and most notably, donk-leading 20pct of flops.
Preflop
($0.75)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
A
A
UTG folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $1.50, SB calls $1.25, BB folds
UTG folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $1.50, SB calls $1.25, BB folds
Flop
($3.50)
8
T
J
(3 Players)
SB bets $3.31,
Hero raises to $10,
SB calls $6.69
Turn
($23.50)
2
(3 Players)
SB bets $11.10,
Hero calls $11.10
River
($45.70)
5
(3 Players)
SB bets $21.58,
Hero calls $21.58
was the line i took relatively standard?
is it a mistake not to raise the turn? i mean, there are 12 cards that can come on the river that will put a four-straight on the board. if i shove though, i do end up seeing straights, sets, and two-pairs an awful lot.
Board: ThJs8c2c
Equity Win Tie
BU 57.02% 57.02% 0.00% { AdAs }
SB 42.98% 42.98% 0.00% { KK-TT, 88, AJs, KJs, QJs, Q9s, J8s+, T8s+, 97s, AcKc, AcQc, KcQc, AJo, KJo, QJo, JTo, T9o }
reasonable estimation of villains range?
Loading 9 Comments...
It's weird that he only calls your reraise on the flop and then lead on a very dry card on the turn instead of lettig you bet. It feels like he has JJ or KQ. He is either betting small on turn to make you shove or getting a better price to draw.
I feel like J9 will get it in on the flop. His stats indicates that he is a fish and I know they like to donk draws. I don't think I'm folding this hand but I'm not to happy about calling!
+1, basically. I'm probably just shoving since I expect him to BC with a wider range than he's betting T+R with once I call, but it's not like a fist pump shove by any means.
Looks fine. He can be value cutting himself with a Jack, and KQ/9x missed. And he can always be randomly spazzing.
Getting 3:1, it seems like a call.
like robin said, it seems odd that he didn't reraise flop with his sets, straights and two pair, so it really feels like he's trying to buy himself a cheap river with one of the many pair plus straight draws in his range. however, you're around a 3:2 dog if he only getting it in with with JJ, TT, 88, Q9s 97s, JT, J8s AKc, AJc, KJc, QJc, QTc, JT, J9, 98. So rather than shove, I think I'd prefer to keep his range wider and see if he shuts down OTR.
OTR, it seems more likely that he's got two pair+ given that he's still betting. Prob sigh fold unless he's an over-aggro donk with AJ, KJ etc
I think raise flop is not really good,8 T J is a wet board and also 8-J also in V's 3bet call range. Hero AA can not easy fold to V''s re-raise or jam in flop.
Not folding river as played. Dont think I want to be raising the flop here, but theres a lot of different leading strategies and I really just dont know if we should be raising AA vs them.
I like raising the flop vs a halfway frequent donkbettor. I think I'd fold to a 3bet though because he can clearly have Q9o, 97s and all the sets and 2pairs in his range and I think he'd hardly ever 3bet sth else. If he just calls the raise, I'd feel very comfortable and plan on getting it in.
As played I'd just shove the turn. Barring a read, I doubt that he'd mindlessly fires the river with all of his bluffs and random hands and is more likely to pay off sth like T9 OTT than if we ship on the river. His line is a bit weird but with his sizing it doesn't look particularly strong and I also expect to get in anything stronger OTF mostly.
It hasn't been mentioned in the ranges i just skimmed over above, but this villain never 3bets soo he can have QQ, Kk as well as value-cutting combos that strengthen our equiy vs his range.
I'd play this hand exactly the same on turn and river, though I probably just call the flop!
what is his c/r range?? put the hands out!
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